000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151606
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                     
1605 UTC SUN NOV 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A GALE IS IN EFFECT WITH SEAS TO 12 FT
UNTIL 16/0000 UTC. THEN 20-30 KT WINDS WITH SEAS 8 TO 11 FT ARE
FORECAST UNTIL 17/0000 UTC. THIS FORECAST IS BASED MORE HEAVILY
ON THE GFS MODEL. THE NAM MODEL IS FORECASTING THE END OF GALE
EARLIER...AS WELL AS THE END OF 20-30 KT WINDS EARLIER.  
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 105W FROM 10N TO 16N MOVING W AT
10KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 14NBETWEEN
100W AND 106W. 
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...        

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N77W TO 09N84W TO LOW PRES
NEAR 14N125W 1005 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N138W 1007 MB TO BEYOND
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 03N E
OF 84W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
10N TO 18N BETWEEN 113W AND 127W...AND FROM 03N TO 10N W OF 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA WILL SWEEP INTO NORTHERN WATERS LATER
THIS EVENING AND EXTEND FROM 30N125W TO 28N140W. N OF FRONT WILL
HAVE N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS 10 TO 12 FT IN NW
SWELL. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND SUN FROM 28N114W TO 25N126W TO
25N140W. N OF FRONT WILL HAVE N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH
SEAS 11 TO 14 FT IN NW SWELL. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND MON FROM
23N106W TO 15N120W TO 14N140W. N OF FRONT WILL HAVE N TO NE
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT IN NW SWELL...HIGHEST N OF
27N E OF 123W.

LOW PRES AREAS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 14N125W
AND 08N138W ARE PRODUCING CONVECTION AND IS DEPICTED IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH PARAGRAPH ABOVE. THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
EITHER LOW DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
GAP WINDS...                                                

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS N WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON WILL INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG W-
SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF
29N SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG TO NEAR-GALE NW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT MON...WITH FRESH TO STRONG N-NW WINDS
FUNNELING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTH AMERICA AND THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL ENHANCE NE WINDS
THROUGH NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN COSTA RICA THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS OCCASIONALLY PEAKING TO NEAR 25 KT
BUT MAX SEAS REMAINING BELOW 8 FT THROUGH TUE.

$$
FORMOSA