000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150925
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1005 UTC SUN NOV 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...SCATTEROMETER AND ALTIMETER REMOTE SENSED
DATA DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS REVEALS WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE GALE WIND EVENT OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
ARE LESS THAN FORECAST BY THE USUALLY RELIABLE GFS GLOBAL MODEL.
AN ASCAT PASS 0325 UTC PASSING JUST W OF THE ZONE OF HIGHEST
WINDS SHOWED 25-30 KT WINDS...OR ABOUT 5 KT LESS THAN INDICATED
IN OUR FORECAST GRIDS. AN ALTIMETER PASSING DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA AT 0035 UTC HAD MAX SEAS NEAR 10 FT...OR ABOUT 3 FT LESS
THAN EXPECTED. AS A RESULT...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO
REFLECT CURRENT DATA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW MINIMAL GALE TO
25-30 KT IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND CONTINUE TO DECREASE EARLY MON.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 104W FROM 11N TO 15N. NO CONVECTION.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...        

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO LOW PRES NEAR 14N125W
1009 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 07N140W 1009 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N AND 90 NM S OF AXIS
BETWEEN 116W AND 134W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 05N TO 09N W OF 136W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA WILL SWEEP INTO NORTHERN WATERS LATER
THIS MORNING...TO EXTEND FROM 29N115W TO 25N126W TO 24N140W SUN
NIGHT...AND FROM 24N111W TO 20N125W TO 19N140W MON NIGHT WHILE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING. STRONG HIGH PRES NW OF THE FRONT NEAR 35N
WILL PRODUCE A VERY LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW BY MON. THESE 20-30 KT NELY WINDS WILL AFFECT MOST OF
THE FORECAST WATERS N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE W OF 110W. HIGHEST
SEAS TO 14-16 FT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS N OF 28N W
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY MON EVENING. 

LOW PRES AREAS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 14N125W
AND 07N140W ARE PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITHIN 100-200 MILES OF THE TROUGH AXIS W OF 115W.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
ANY DEVELOPMENT OF EITHER LOW DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
GAP WINDS...                                                

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS N WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON WILL INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG W-
SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF
29N SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG TO NEAR-GALE NW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT MON...WITH FRESH TO STRONG N-NW WINDS
FUNNELING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTH AMERICA AND THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL ENHANCE NE WINDS
THROUGH NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN COSTA RICA THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS OCCASIONALLY PEAKING TO NEAR 25 KT
BUT MAX SEAS REMAINING BELOW 8 FT THROUGH TUE.

$$
MUNDELL