000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150320 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN NOV 15 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MON MORNING. MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN MORNING...WITH MAX SEAS IN THE 13-15 FT RANGE. RIDGING OVER NE MEXICO THAT IS DRIVING THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CHIVELA PASS WILL WEAKEN SUN AS THE PARENT HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS EASTWARD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 30-35 KT FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON MORNING...WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE WINDS EARLY MON. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 102W FROM 09N TO 15N. CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE...AND NOW ONLY A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WHERE THE WAVE MEETS THE MONSOON TROUGH. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 10N100W TO 12N110W TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N126W 1005 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 07N140W 1006 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W...FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 130W AND 135W AND FROM 06N TO 10N W OF 127W. ...DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA WILL SWEEP INTO NORTHERN WATERS IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...AND EXTEND FROM 30N120W TO 26N130W TO 27N140W SUN EVENING...AND FROM 27N114W TO 22N125W TO 23N140W MON EVENING WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. STRONG HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING AN UNUSUALLY LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW AROUND A 1035 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 35N136W BY MON. THESE WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE W OF 110W. THE 1005 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 13N126W WILL DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KT IN THE N SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE N SUN NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 12-13 FT IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...THE HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS N OF 28N W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 130W WHERE SEAS OF 12-16 FT PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL ARE EXPECTED MON MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRES IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS LOW PRES A LOW CHANGE OF DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS. GAP WINDS... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE N WATERS SUN AND MON. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG W-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 29N SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE STRONG TO NEAR-GALE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ON MON WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FUNNELING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTH AMERICA AND THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL DRIVE E-NE WINDS THROUGH NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN COSTA RICA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THESE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ENHANCED BY NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW AND REACH A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE SUN AND MON MORNINGS DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO TO 88W. $$ GR