000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142137
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
2205 UTC SAT NOV 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MON MORNING. MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SUN MORNING...WITH MAX SEAS IN THE 13-15 FT
RANGE. RIDGING OVER NE MEXICO THAT IS DRIVING THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS CHIVELA PASS WILL WEAKEN SUN AS THE PARENT HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS EASTWARD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 30-35 KT
FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON MORNING...WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE
FLOW EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE WINDS EARLY MON. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 101W FROM 09N TO 15N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. 
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...        

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 08N78W TO 11N92W TO 10N100W
TO 11N110W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N125W 1005 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR
07N140W 1006 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM
OF TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 98W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 04N TO 07N W OF 82W...FROM
10N TO 16N BETWEEN 119W AND 127W...FROM 05N TO 11N W OF 125W AND
FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 130W AND 133W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA WILL SWEEP INTO NORTHERN WATERS IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND EXTEND FROM 30N123W TO 28N130W TO 28N140W
SUN AFTERNOON...AND FROM 27N114W TO 23N125W TO 23N140W MON
AFTERNOON WHILE WEAKENING. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN UNUSUALLY
LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH DEVELOPING MON...ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS N
OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE W OF 110W. THE 1005 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11N125W WILL DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KT IN THE N
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE N SUN
NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 12-13 FT IN THIS AREA.
OTHERWISE...THE HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS
N OF 28N W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 130W WHERE SEAS OF 12-16 FT
PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL ARE EXPECTED MON MORNING. 
 
GAP WINDS...                                                

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE N WATERS SUN AND MON. W-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL INCREASE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA N OF 29N SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NW WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE STRONG TO NEAR-GALE. MARINE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF MON NIGHT WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NORTH AMERICA AND THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL DRIVE E-NE WINDS
THROUGH NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN COSTA RICA DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THESE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE A MODERATE TO FRESH
BREEZE...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ENHANCED BY NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW AND REACH A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE SUN AND MON
MORNINGS DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO TO 88W.

$$
GR