000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140330 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT NOV 14 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BLOW ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH SUN BASED ON LATEST MARINE GUIDANCE. THIS GAP WIND EVENT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SW GULF REACHING COATZACOALCOS BY SAT MORNING. COLD DENSE AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND ACCELERATE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE COLD DENSE AIR WILL BE FURTHER REINFORCED LATE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SURGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRA ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE GALE FORCE WINDS TO 40 KT AT THAT TIME WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 15 OR 16 FT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W/89W N OF 09N. THIS WAVE IS PRODUCING SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W/98W FROM 07N TO 13N MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KNOTS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...ESPECIALLY FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 10N95W TO 07N100W TO 09N110W TO 1007 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N125W TO ANOTHER 1007 MB LOW PRES NEAR 07N139W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 116W AND 130W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 10N W OF 136W. ...DISCUSSION... HIGH PRES LOCATED NW OF AREA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHERN WATERS LATE THIS WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRES OF 1027 MB IS CURRENTLY NEAR 33N145W AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR 20N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS ROUGHLY N OF 10N W OF 125W. EXPECT SLIGHT DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN WATERS SUN MORNING REACHING FROM 30N118W TO 26N130W TO 26N140W BY SUN EVENING...AND FROM 30N113W TO 25N120W TO 24N130W TO 24N140W BY MON MORNING WHILE WEAKENING. A STRONG HIGH PRES WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS N OF 15N W OF 110W LATE ON MON. A NEW SET OF LARGE NW SWELL ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SEA HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH W OF 115W...WHERE NE WIND WAVES FROM TRADE WINDS WILL MIX WITH NW SWELL TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF 9- 12 FT COMBINED SEAS. THIS LARGE NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE BUILDING SEA HEIGHTS TO 12-16 FT ACROSS THE N WATERS EARLY ON MON. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE GULF...MAINLY S OF 28N. SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THIS AREA. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR SEA OF CORTEZ BY MON AND WINDS MAY REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8-10 FT LATE ON MON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE STRONG WINDS. $$ GR