000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130920
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC FRI NOV 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE OCCURRING AT THE PRESENT TIME. AN ASCAT PASS AT 0400
UTC SHOWED 30 KT WINDS N OF 15N IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...
AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS WILL INTENSIFY FURTHER THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO
AND COLD DENSE AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO FUNNELS THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND ACCELERATES ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO MIX DOWN ACROSS VERY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY BUILD TO AROUND 12 FT
THIS MORNING. THE COLD DENSE AIR WILL BE FURTHER REINFORCED LATE
TONIGHT AND INCREASE NORTHERLY WINDS TO 40 KT WITH MAX SEAS
BUILDING TO 15-16 FT. MINIMAL GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUN EVENING.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE N OF 10N ALONG 93W IS MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N85W TO 10N117W TO 08N124W TO 09N133W
TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN
90 NM N AND 120 NM S OF AXIS W OF 110W.

...DISCUSSION...

STRONG HIGH PRES NW OF THE AREA CENTERED NEAR 34N147W IS SLOWLY
WEAKENING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHERN WATERS
LATE THIS WEEKEND. MODERATELY STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PREVAILS
N OF 15N W OF 115W AND SCATTEROMETER DATA HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
SHOWING LARGE AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS N OF 10N W OF 120W-125W THE
PAST FEW DAYS. EXPECT SLIGHT DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS AND 8-11 FT SEAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
PRES GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD
INTO NORTHERN WATERS SUN MORNING...AND USHER IN A FRESH SET OF
LARGE NW SWELL TO MAINTAIN ELEVATED SEA HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF THE
AREA N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE W OF 115W...WHERE NE WIND WAVES
FROM TRADE WINDS NEAR 6-7 FT WILL MIX WITH NW SWELL NEAR 8-9 FT
TO PRODUCE LARGE AREA OF 9-12 FT COMBINED SEAS.
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HI-RES ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0500 UTC
SHOWED 20 KT WINDS OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BUT FEW
IF ANY 25 KT WIND BARBS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO AROUND 4-6 FT LATER TODAY. 

$$
MUNDELL