000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130334 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI NOV 13 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS GULF BEGINNING TONIGHT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. COLD DENSE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND ACCELERATE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND MIX DOWN ACROSS VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY BUILD TO AROUND 12 FT. THE COLD DENSE AIR WILL BE FURTHER REINFORCED LATE FRI NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SURGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRA ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE GALE FORCE WINDS TO 40 KT AT THAT TIME WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 15 OR 16 FT. STRONG TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS RELOCATED ALONG 92W BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE EXTENDS N ALONG GUATEMALA WHERE IS HELPING TO INDUCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION...700 MB GFS STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG 91W/92W WHICH CORRELATES VERY WELL WITH THE WAVE POSITION. THE WAVE IS ALSO REFLECTED IN A SURGE OF MOISTURE ON THE TPW PRODUCT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N85W TO 09N110W TO 10N116W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N122W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N T0 13N BETWEEN 112W AND 119W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 10N W OF 119W. A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGH ARE WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 118W AND 131W. THESE TROUGHS ARE ALSO WELL DEPICTED ON THE 700 MB GFS STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND THE MOISTURE PRODUCT. ...DISCUSSION... THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT HAS BEEN LOCATED NW OF THE AREA DURING THE PREVIOUS DAYS IS WEAKENING. CURRENTLY...A 1031 MB HIGH IS SITUATED NEAR 35N145W. ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR 20N115W. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT S AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FROM 10N TO 28N W OF 130W...AND FROM 13N TO 22N BETWEEN 125W AND 130W AS OBSERVED ON PREVIOUS SCATTEROMETER DATA. EARLIER ALTIMETER DATA SHOWED SEAS TO 11-12 FT RESULTING FROM THESE WINDS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF 10N AND W OF 113W. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH SAT AND THE AERIAL EXTENT OF THE TRADES WILL DECREASE. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL REACH THE FAR NW WATERS LATE ON FRI AND SPREAD ACROSS THE N WATERS ON SAT BUILDING SEAS TO 10-11 FT N OF 28N BETWEEN 123W AND 125W LATE ON SAT. GAP WINDS... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS SUPPORTING A FETCH OF STRONG NW WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED 20-25 KT NW WINDS OVER MOST OF THE GULF WITH A FEW WIND BARBS OF 30 KT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO AROUND 4- 6 FT ON FRI. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...PULSING NE-E WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF AGAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY BETWEEN 06-12 UTC WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THESE WINDS MAY START UP AGAIN FRI NIGHT. $$ GR