000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122159
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC THU NOV 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS GULF
BEGINNING TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEGINNING THIS EVENING AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO BEHIND A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. COLD DENSE AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND
ACCELERATE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND MIX DOWN ACROSS
VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE RANGE OF 29-30.5 DEG
CELSIUS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY REACH GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT WITH
SEAS RAPIDLY BUILDING TO AROUND 12 FT. THE COLD DENSE AIR WILL
BE FURTHER REINFORCED LATE FRI NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SURGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRA ORIENTAL
MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE GALE FORCE WINDS TO 40 KT AT
THAT TIME WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 15 OR 16 FT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W N OF 10N TO INLAND SE MEXICO.
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE AND NOW
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE WAVE AXIS N OF 13N. 
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 10N100W TO 08N120W.
ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 08N120W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN
105W AND 118W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 10N W OF 118W.

...DISCUSSION...

A STRONG 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NW OF THE AREA NEAR
35N143W HAS ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SE THROUGH 32N136W
AND TO NEAR 20N115W. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT S AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH
AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FROM 10N TO 28N W OF
130W...AND FROM 13N TO 22N BETWEEN 125W AND 130W AS NOTED ON
PREVIOUS SCATTEROMETER DATA. EARLIER ALTIMETER DATA SHOWED SEAS
TO 11-12 FT RESULTING FROM THESE WINDS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF 10N AND W OF 113W. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONG RIDGE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH SAT.

GAP WINDS...
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
IS SUPPORTING A FETCH OF STRONG NW WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THE MOST RECENT HI-RES
RAPIDSCAT PASS SHOWED 20-25 KT NW WINDS OVER MOST OF THE GULF
WITH A FEW WIND BARBS OF 30 KT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO AROUND 4-6 FT
FRI. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...PULSING NE-E WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF AGAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY BETWEEN 06-12
UTC WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THESE 
WINDS MAY START UP AGAIN FRI NIGHT.

$$
GR