000 AXPZ20 KNHC 121605 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU NOV 12 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR WINDS THAT WILL INCREASE BEGINNING THIS EVENING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT JUST MOVED OFF THE TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING. COLD DENSE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND ACCELERATE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND MIX DOWN ACROSS VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE RANGE OF 29-30.5 DEG CELSIUS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY REACH GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS RAPIDLY BUILDING TO AROUND 14 FT. THE COLD DENSE AIR WILL BE FURTHER REINFORCED LATE FRI NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SURGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRA ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE GALE FORCE WINDS TO 40 KT AT THAT TIME WITH SEAS BUILDING FURTHER TO NEAR 17 FT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W EXTENDS FROM 08N-15N MOVING W AT 15- 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE WAVE FROM 13N-15N...AND W OF THE WAVE WITHIN 15 NM OF 12N116W. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91W EXTENDS N OF 09N TO INLAND GUATEMALA AND TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED TO THE W OF THE WAVE FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 92W-96W MAINLY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY NEAR THE WAVE WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED AT 15N97W. ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60-75 NM OF THE WAVE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM FAR NW COLOMBIA TO ACROSS NORTHERN PANAMA AND CENTRAL COSTA RICA...AND CONTINUES WSW TO 09N92W AND NW TO 10N103W...THEN SW TO 09N110W TO 08N114W WHERE IT BRIEFLY ENDS WHERE A TROUGH ALONG 115W EXTENDS FROM 08N-13N. THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES AT 09N116W AND CONTINUES TO 10N127W. A TROUGH IS JUST W OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 128W FROM 06N-12W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N130W TO BEYOND THE AREA AT 06N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 112W-119W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 105W-108W. ...DISCUSSION... A STRONG 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NW OF THE AREA NEAR 36N144W HAS ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SE THROUGH 32N136W AND TO NEAR 20N120W. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SE AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS N OF 10N W OF 128W BASED ON SCATTEROMETER DATA. EARLIER ALTIMETER DATA SHOWED SEAS TO 11-12 FT RESULTING FROM THESE WINDS.MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF 10N AND W OF 113W. THE STRONG RIDGE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH FRI. GAP WINDS... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS SUPPORTING A FETCH OF STRONG NW WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS RATHER HIGH FOR NOW IN THE RANGE OF 8-10 FT. A RECENT HI-RES RAPIDSCAT PASS SHOWED 20-30 KT NW WINDS OVER MOST OF THE GULF OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT...AND SOME OF THESE STRONG WINDS EXTENDING S OF THE GULF FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 106W-109W. IN ADDITION...GAP WINDS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITH 20-25 KT NE WINDS ON THE PACIFIC SIDE. A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS THROUGH THE REST F THIS MORNING...AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO AROUND 4-6 FT FRI. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...PULSING NE-E WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF AGAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY BETWEEN 06-12 UTC WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THESE WINDS MAY START UP AGAIN FRI NIGHT. $$ AGUIRRE