000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120330 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU NOV 12 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS GULF BEGINNING THU NIGHT. WINDS IN THIS AREA WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THU EVENING AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY ON THU. COLD DENSE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS TO ACCELERATE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL QUICKLY INTENSIFY TO GALE FORCE THU NIGHT. EXPECT MAX SEAS TO 12-13 FT BY FRI MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS GAP WIND EVENT. THIS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS COULD FURTHER INCREASE EARLY ON SAT. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30-40 KT AND SEAS OF 10-14 FT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 104W/105W FROM 09N TO 15N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 103W AND 106W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N86W TO 08N110W TO 06N120W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 103W AND 106W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 87W AND 96W...FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 105W AND 110W...AND WITHIN 120 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 123W AND 127W...FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 130W AND 135W. CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 129W AND 131W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NOW NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO TO NEAR 15N105W. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES THE N WATERS. MODERATE TO STRONG SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS ADVECTING AMPLE MOISTURE NE TOWARDS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND TO OVER NW MEXICO INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND RESULTANT DRY AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH IS MAINTAINING RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE N PART OF THE AREA...PARTICULARLY N OF 20N W OF 115W. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1037 MB REMAINS NW OF THE AREA NEAR 37N145W WITH ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGING STRETCHING SE TO NEAR 18N110W. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT REACHES NEAR 35N142W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS N OF 12N W OF 130W...AND FROM 13N TO 26N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. A PAIR OF ALTIMETER PASSES PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF SEAS UP TO 12 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE WINDS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF 10N AND W OF 115W. THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH FRI. GAP WINDS... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1031 MB HAS SET UP OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING A FETCH OF NW FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF CALIFORNIA. THIS IS PRESENTLY OBSERVED AS STRONG NW WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHERE SEAS ARE BUILDING AS WELL. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED NW WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE ACROSS THE GULF S OF 27N. SOME OF THESE STRONG WINDS EXTEND FARTHER S OF THE GULF COVERING THE WATERS FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 106W AND 109WWITH SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT. THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THESE WINDS THROUGH EARLY THU...THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE THU AFTERNOON WITH THE WINDS MORE CONFINED FROM 25N-28N WITH SEAS TO 8 FT THERE BY THU NIGHT. THEN...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO AROUND THE 4-6 FT RANGE ON FRI. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...PULSING NE-E WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF AGAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY BETWEEN 06-12 UTC WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THESE WINDS MAY START UP AGAIN FRI NIGHT. $$ GR