000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111606 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED NOV 11 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N-NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CULPRIT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO SLACKENS. THE RESPITE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THU BEGINS TO SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS AND TOWARDS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO SENDING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS ON THU. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY INTENSIFY TO GALE FORCE CRITERIA THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THU NIGHT AS THE COOLER AND DENSER AIR MIXES DOWNWARD OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE GULF. INDUCED SEA STATE IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY BUILD TO 11 OR 12 FT. 10 METER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS EVENT WILL BE LONG IN DURATION WITH THE GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD S TO NEAR 14N WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14.5N96W BY EARLY ON FRI WITH SEAS BUILDING TO THE 10-15 FT RANGE. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GALE WINDS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE S TO NEAR 13N AND BETWEEN 94W AND 96.5W WITH SEAS OF 8-12 FT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM ALONG THE COAST OF NW COLOMBIA SW 09N79W TO 10N87W TO 10N100W TO 09N108W TO 08N115W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N126W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 126W-133W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 105W-109W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 99W-104W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 92W-97W. ...DISCUSSION... THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER E CENTRAL MEXICO COVERS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 10N E OF 111W. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IS W OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE N WATERS TO 140W. MODERATE TO STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND TROUGH ARE ADVECTING AMPLE MOISTURE NE TOWARDS MUCH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND TO OVER NW MEXICO TO ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND RESULTANT DRY AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH TO NEAR 138W IS MAINTAINING RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THAT PORTION OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT...SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER TROUGH...EXTENDS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SW TO LOS MOCHIS MEXICO TO ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...THEN BECOMES A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TO 21N116W AND SHEAR LINE FROM THERE TO 20N126W TO 20N135W TO BEYOND 20N140W. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1039 MB IS NW OF THE AREA NEAR 38N147W WITH ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGING STRETCHING SE TO 32N129W TO 27N121W TO JUST W OF THE FRONT NEAR 21N115W. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT REACHES NEAR 35N142W BY EARLY THU. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FROM FROM 12N TO 29N W OF ABOUT 125W. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF 10N AND W OF 115W. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE OVER THIS AREA...A COMBINATION OF NW SWELL WITH NE WIND WAVES. THE COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY THIS EVENING WHILE THE SHEAR LINE PORTION LINGERS A BIT LONGER INTO THU. THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH FRI. GAP WINDS... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1030 MB HAS SET UP OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA WITH BROAD TIGHT RIDGING ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION OF THE U.S. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING A FETCH OF NW FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF CALIFORNIA. THIS IS PRESENTLY OBSERVED AS STRONG NW WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHERE SEAS ARE BUILDING AS WELL. THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THESE WINDS THROUGH EARLY ON THU WITH SEAS TO 9 FT...THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE THU AFTERNOON WITH THE WINDS MORE CONFINED FROM 25N-28N WITH SEAS TO 8 FT THERE. BY LATE THU NIGHT...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO AROUND THE 4-6 FT RANGE. SOME OF THE STRONG NW WIND FLOW MAY SEEP A LITTLE FURTHER S OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND THU. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...PULSING NE-E WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF AGAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY BETWEEN 06-12 UTC WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THESE WINDS MAY START UP AGAIN FRI NIGHT. $$ AGUIRRE