000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110331 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC WED NOV 11 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 09N100W TO 08N113W. ITCZ FROM 08N113W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 09N122W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 95W...FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W...AND FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 120W AND 127W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 05N TO 08N W OF 132W. ...DISCUSSION... LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO COVERING THE AREA N OF 10N E OF 110W. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IS W OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE N WATERS TO 140W. MODERATE TO STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND TROUGH ARE ADVECTING AMPLE MOISTURE NE TOWARDS MUCH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND TO OVER NW MEXICO. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND RESULTANT DRY AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH TO NEAR 138W IS MAINTAINING RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THAT PORTION OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT...SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER TROUGH...EXTENDS FROM NW MEXICO TO 25N119W THEN CONTINUES AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ALONG 23N125W 21N134W. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES FROM 21N134W TO BEYOND 23N140W. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1039 MB LOCATED NEAR 38N150W FOLLOWS THE FRONT AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR 37N144W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FROM FROM 12N TO 24N W OF 125W AND FROM 24N TO 29N W OF 135W. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF 10N AND W OF 120W. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE OVER THIS AREA...A COMBINATION OF NW SWELL WITH NE WIND WAVES. THE COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AS THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT JUST OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT COVERING THE WATERS FROM 22N TO 28N E OF 118W BY WED MORNING. GAP WINDS... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION ON WED. THIS WILL HELP TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BY WED MORNING TO 25 KT...AND WITH SEAS REACHING TO AROUND 8 OR 9 FT BY WED NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BY LATE THU. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N-NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-30 KT ACROSS THE GULF CONTINUE DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND LOWER PRES NEAR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH WINDS VEERING OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL DECREASE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING. BEYOND 48 HOURS...A MUCH STRONGER SURGE OF N-NE WINDS WITH BUILDING SEAS IS FORECAST BY THE GFS MODEL TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO THE GULF BEGINNING THU NIGHT AND INTO EARLY ON FRI AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS. THESE WINDS MAY REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10-11 FT. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...PULSING NE-E WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT AND AGAIN WED NIGHT...MAINLY BETWEEN 0600-1200 UTC WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. $$ GR/ERA