000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102150
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC TUE NOV 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 09N100W TO 07N113W. ITCZ FROM
07N113W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N122W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 95W...AND 06N TO
10N W OF 132W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 100W
AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...

LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO
COVERING THE AREA N OF 09N E OF 119W. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IS W
OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE N WATERS TO 140W.
MODERATE TO STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND TROUGH ARE ADVECTING AMPLE MOISTURE NE TOWARDS MUCH OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...AND TO OVER NW MEXICO. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND
RESULTANT DRY AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH TO NEAR 138W IS MAINTAINING
RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THAT PORTION OF THE AREA. 

A COLD FRONT...SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER TROUGH...EXTENDS FROM NW
MEXICO TO 26N116W THEN CONTINUES AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
ALONG 22N130W 23N140W. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS
MAINTAINING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FROM 12N TO 25N W
OF 125W AND N OF 25N W OF 135W. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE N OF 10N AND W OF 120W. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE
OVER THIS AREA...A COMBINATION OF NW SWELL WITH NE WIND WAVES.
THE COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING
AS THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER
THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
IN ADDITION...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT JUST
OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT. A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER PASS ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THAT AREA
AND MAINLY N OF 23N W OF 116W.
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN REGION ON WED. THIS WILL HELP TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN BY WED MORNING TO 25 KT...AND WITH SEAS REACHING TO
AROUND 8 OR 9 FT BY WED NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
BY LATE THU.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N-NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-30 KT ACROSS
THE GULF CONTINUE DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND THE
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH WINDS VEERING OVER THE SW GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS WILL DECREASE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISHING. BEYOND 48 HOURS...A MUCH STRONGER SURGE OF N-NE
WINDS WITH BUILDING SEAS IS FORECAST BY THE GFS MODEL TO FUNNEL
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO THE GULF BEGINNING THU NIGHT
AND INTO EARLY ON FRI AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS. THESE WINDS MAY REACH
MINIMAL GALE FORCE. WILL EVALUATE FUTURE MODEL TRENDS FOR
CONSISTENCY ON THIS SCENARIO AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE.

$$
GR