000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101908 AAA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1908 UTC TUE NOV 10 2015 UPDATED DISCUSSION SECTION TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1830 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N109W 1009 MB TO 08N115W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N119W 1009 MB TO 07N128W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N128W TO 07N135W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 137W-139W...AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ W OF 139W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS LOCATED S OF THE TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 06N101W TO 06N107W TO 05N116W...AND ALSO N OF THE TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 12N102W TO 12.5N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 90W-94W. ...DISCUSSION... LARGE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS PRESENT N OF 09N E OF 119W. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IS BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND 136W. MODERATE TO STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND TROUGH ARE ADVECTING AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS NE TOWARDS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND TO OVER NW AND N CENTRAL MEXICO. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND RESULTANT DRY AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH TO NEAR 138W IS MAINTAINING RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THAT PORTION OF THE AREA AS EVIDENT IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAY OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS THERE. A COLD FRONT...SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER TROUGH...EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 26N118W WHERE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE TO 23N130W AND TRANSITIONS TO A SHEAR LINE THAT EXTENDS TO 23N136W TO 22N140W. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FROM FROM 13N-21N W OF 132W. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF 10N AND W OF 120W. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE OVER THIS AREA... A COMBINATION OF NW SWELL WITH NE WIND WAVES. THE COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING AS THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION ON WED. THIS WILL HELP TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BY WED AFTERNOON TO 25 KT...AND WITH SEAS REACHING TO AROUND 7 OR 8 FT. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THU. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N-NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-30 KT ACROSS THE GULF CONTINUE DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH WINDS VEERING OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL DECREASE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING. BEYOND 48 HOURS...A MUCH STRONGER SURGE OF N-NE WINDS WITH BUILDING SEAS IS FORECAST BY THE GFS MODEL TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO THE GULF BEGINNING THU NIGHT AND INTO EARLY ON FRI AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS. THESE WINDS MAY REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE. WILL EVALUATE FUTURE MODEL TRENDS FOR CONSISTENCY ON THIS SCENARIO AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE. $$ AGUIRRE