000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092203
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC MON NOV 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.               
     
...TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS...

A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON 
TROUGH AT 08N104W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LOW 
CENTER. LOW WILL BE MOVING W WITHIN NEXT 24 HOURS.

A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AT 
08N117W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NW TO 13N125W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 10N 
BETWEEN 112W AND 120W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES 
08N104W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES 08N117W TO 06N125W. THE ITCZ AXIS 
BEGINS NEAR 06N125W AND CONTINUES TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 13N E OF 102W AND FROM 03N TO 13N W OF 
124W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM FROM 30N119W TO 24N136W AND 
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS S OF 
27N...BUT CONTINUE E ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT INTO TUE. THE GRADIENT W OF THE FRONT 
WILL MAINTAIN A SWATH OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS 
FROM 25N-27N W OF 136W. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO 
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 10N W OF 110W THROUGH 
MID WEEK SUPPORTING N-NE 20-25 KT FLOW AND SEAS OF 8-12 FT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW 5-10 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED S OF 27N 
WHILE SOUTHERLY 5-15 KT WINDS ARE E OF A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 32N115W TO 28N112W. NW WINDS OF 5-10 KT ARE W OF 
THE TROUGH AXIS. BY TUE MORNING THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND 
MEXICO AND NW WIND FLOW WILL FILL UP THE GULF AS A DISSIPATING 
COLD FRONT MOVES S ACROSS THE PENINSULA. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW 
WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT EARLY TUE...GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 20-
25 KT LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME 
ON THU...EXCEPT CONTINUING AT 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N 
OF 30N THROUGH SAT MORNING.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...PULSES OF 20-30 KT N TO NE WINDS WILL 
CONTINUE THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON...THEN THE MAXIMUM NOCTURNAL 
DRAINAGE IS FORECAST AT 25 KT ON TUE AND WED NIGHTS. GUIDANCE 
THEN SUGGESTS NORTHERLY 20-30 KT FLOW WILL RESUME ON THU NIGHT 
WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE SUGGESTED TO START AGAIN LATE FRI NIGHT. 
 
$$
NR