000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091554
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC MON NOV 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE LAST SURGE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE WAS 
JUST AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING WITH SEAS TO 10 FT. EXPECT 
PULSES TO 30 KT THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUE...THEN THE MAXIMUM 
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE IS FORECAST AT 25 KT ON TUE AND WED NIGHTS. 
GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS NORTHERLY 20-30 KT FLOW WILL RESUME ON 
THU NIGHT WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE SUGGESTED TO START AGAIN LATE 
FRI NIGHT. 
     
...TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS...

THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH  
WESTERN PANAMA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICAL EPAC N OF 03N E OF 84W. 

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON 
TROUGH AT 09N102W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS OBSERVED WITHIN 240 NM OVER THE S QUADRANT OF THE LOW. THIS 
WEAK LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT.

A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AT 
09N117W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NW TO 14N125W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF 
LINE FROM 10N117W TO 16N124W.  

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OBSERVED N OF THE ITCZ FROM 08N136W TO 
13N138W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED TO THE N OF 10N WITHIN 240 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF 
COLOMBIA AT 10N75W ACROSS EXTREME NW PANAMA AND SE COSTA RICA  
TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 09N84W...THEN CONTINUES W 
TO AN EMBEDDED LOW PRES AT 09N102W TO A SECOND EMBEDDED LOW PRES 
AT 09N117W...THEN TURNS SW TO TO 06N126W WHERE SCATTEROMETER 
WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ. THE ITCZ THEN WIGGLES W 
BETWEEN 04-07N TO BEYOND 140W.   

EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINES 
FROM 04N77W TO 08N83W AND FROM 10N85W TO 06N104W TO 08N115W TO 
03N123W...AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N133W  
TO 06N140W.    

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N120W TO 25N140W AND IS   
EXPECTED TO SOON WASH OUT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS S OF 
29.5N...BUT CONTINUE E ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA 
AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT INTO TUE. THE GRADIENT W OF THE 
FRONT WILL MAINTAIN A SWATH OF NE-20-25 KT WINDS ACROSS THE 
WATERS FROM 26N-29N W OF 135W. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 10N W OF  
110W THROUGH MID WEEK SUPPORTING N-NE 20-25 KT FLOW AND SEAS OF 
8-12 FT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW 5-10 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED S OF 28N 
WHILE SOUTHERLY 5 KT WINDS HAVE SET UP TO THE N OF 28N. THESE 
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE 
SOUTHERN END OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CLIP THE NORTHERN GULF 
LATE TONIGHT INTO LATE MORNING ON TUE. NORTHERLY 15-20 KT WINDS 
WILL SPREAD S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WATERS ON TUE...GRADUALLY 
INCREASING TO 20-25 KT LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE 
DIMINISHING SOME ON THU...EXCEPT CONTINUING AT 20-25 KT ACROSS 
THE GULF WATERS N OF 30N THROUGH SAT MORNING.
 
$$
NELSON