000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090903
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC MON NOV 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                       

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS 
BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS STRONG RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IS HELPING FOR WINDS TO SURGE 
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INDUCING GALE FORCE GAP WINDS OVER THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE RIDGE OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL WEAKEN 
TODAY. THIS WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DECREASE WINDS 
FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. AS A RESULT...WINDS IN 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE THIS 
AFTERNOON. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH EARLY TUE. WINDS WILL VEER OVER 
THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE WHICH WILL FURTHER DECREASE WINDS 
FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 
FRESH TO STRONG OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
  
...TROPICAL WAVES... 

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 104W FROM 09N TO 16N. NO 
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF WAVE 
AXIS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 09N104W TO 07N119W. 
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N119W TO 10N135W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH 
BETWEEN 83W AND 102W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA FROM 30N127W TO 26N140W. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE FOUND 
NW OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SEAS REACHING 11 FT. THE COLD FRONT 
WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL HELP FOR FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADEWINDS TO EXPAND OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. BY TUE 
NIGHT...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL COVER THE AREA FROM 15N TO 
28N W OF 128W.

LONG PERIOD SW SWELL IN THE 17-18 FT RANGE IS AFFECTING SOUTHERN 
MEXICO AS WELL AS CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS SWELL IS BRINGING THE 
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE BREAKING WAVES AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY 
FOR RIP CURRENTS OVER THESE AREAS. THE SWELL WILL DECREASE TODAY 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 
 
$$
AL