000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080906
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SUN NOV 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO WILL REACH THE BAY F CAMPECHE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE 
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BUILD ALONG EASTERN MEXICO. FRESH 
TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL START TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE 
CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY TODAY. WINDS 
WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE SUNDAY EVENING 
BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE MON AFTERNOON.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 11N91W TO 11N99W TO 
07N118W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N118W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM S OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87W AND 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 118W 
AND 122W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM 
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 124W AND 129W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NW. THE FRONT WILL 
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST WATERS TODAY. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS 
WILL BE FOUND NW OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN WATERS. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT WITH WINDS 
DIMINISHING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE FRONT WILL ALSO USHER 
IN A SET OF NW SWELLS. THE SWELLS WILL PEAK NEAR 11 FT LATER 
TONIGHT. THE SWELLS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS THEY SHIFT SE ACROSS 
THE NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG PERIOD...17-18 SECOND...SW SWELLS WILL REACH SOUTHERN 
MEXICO AS WELL AS CENTRAL AMERICA ON MONDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL 
MAKE FOR DANGEROUS NEAR SHORE CONDITIONS WITH LARGE BREAKING 
WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE. 

$$ 
AL