000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080315
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SUN NOV 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO WITH STRONG HIGH PRES EXTENDING A RIDGE ALONG EASTERN 
MEXICO. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW 
PRESSURE OVER THE W GULF WILL SUPPORT FUNNELING OF FRESH TO 
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC STARTING EARLY SUN. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE 
FORCE SUNDAY EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH MON NIGHT...THEN REMAIN 
FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE TUE MORNING...REDUCING TO FRESH TO 
STRONG BY TUE NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N100W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 08N113W TO 06N122W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N122W AND 
CONTINUES TO 07N132W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 80W AND 108W AND FROM 02N TO 07N 
BETWEEN 111W AND 127W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS JUST N OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM 40N126W TO 
30N141W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH NORTHERN WATERS EARLY 
SUN MORNING AND EXTEND FROM 30N131W TO 27N140W SUN EVENING. 
STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES 
GRADIENT IN NW WATERS...THUS GENERATING N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 
25 KT NW OF THE FRONT. LARGE NW SWELL TO 11 FT IS ALSO EXPECTED 
BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SWEEPS SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 25N W OF 116W 
THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES IN THE 
GREAT BASIN REGION COMBINED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WESTERN 
MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS IN THE NORTHERN 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE AREA OF 
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD WHILE IT FURTHER WEAKENS. 

$$ 
NR