000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072153
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SAT NOV 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE NW GULF 
OF MEXICO WITH STRONG HIGH PRES EXTENDING A RIDGE ALONG MEXICO. 
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRESSURE 
OVER THE SW GULF WILL SUPPORT FUNNELING OF FRESH TO STRONG 
NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC STARTING EARLY SUN. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE 
FORCE SUNDAY EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MON...THEN REMAIN 
FRESH TO STRONG MON AFTERNOON THROUGH WED MORNING...WITH HIGHEST 
WINDS EXPECTED IN THE EARLY MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 10N100W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 09N110W TO 07N113W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 07N113W AND 
CONTINUES TO 07N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 220 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 79W AND 109W AND FROM 02N 
TO 07N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA EXTENDS FROM 40N130W TO 30N 
140W. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE DYING COLD 
FRONT TONIGHT. A COMBINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH NORTHERN 
WATERS SUN MORNING AND EXTEND FROM 30N131W TO 27N140W SUN 
EVENING. HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL TIGHTEN THE 
PRES GRADIENT IN NW WATERS GENERATING N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 
KT NW OF THE FRONT. LARGE NW SWELL TO 10 FT IS ALSO EXPECTED 
BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SWEEPS SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 23N W OF 118W 
THROUGH TUE. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES IN THE 
GREAT BASIN REGION COMBINED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG COASTAL 
WESTERN MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS IN THE 
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SUN AS 
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WEAKENS. 

$$ 
NR