000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071520
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SAT NOV 7 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN 
GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY WITH STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGING ACROSS 
E-SE MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FUNNEL THROUGH 
THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY SUN. WINDS 
WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE SUNDAY EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH 
EARLY MON...THEN REMAIN FRESH TO STRONG MON AFTERNOON THROUGH 
WED MORNING...WITH HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE EARLY MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 10N100W TO 10N120W TO 
06N115W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N115W TO 07N130W TO 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 
87W-98W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 103W-107W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 116W-123W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA EXTENDS FROM 39N130W TO 30N 
143W. REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE DYING COLD FRONT 
TONIGHT. A COMBINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH NORTHERN WATERS 
SUN MORNING AND EXTEND FROM 30N127W TO 27N140W SUN EVENING. HIGH 
PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT IN 
NW WATERS. LARGE NW SWELL TO 10-11 FT ALSO EXPECTED BEHIND THE 
FRONT AS IT SWEEPS SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 22N W OF 115W THROUGH TUE. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES IN THE 
GREAT BASIN REGION COMBINED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER MEXICO IS 
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SUN AS THE AREA OF HIGH 
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WEAKENS. 

$$ 
MUNDELL