000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061605
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC FRI NOV 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 12N92W TO LOW 
PRES NEAR 08N107W TO 06N110W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N125W TO 
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S 
OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS E OF 90W...AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS 
BEWTEEN 90W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED 
FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 125W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
SOUTHERN ARIZONA NEAR 32N112W TO 28N111W TO 21N107W...WHILE 
SHARP SURFACE RIDGING IS NOSING DOWN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE    
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH ANOTHER INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH 
REACHING FROM THE CALIFORNIA CHANNEL ISLANDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH 
29N117W TO 22N113W. THIS VERY TIGHT PRES PATTERN IS HELPING TO 
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA S OF 
29N WHICH WAS NICELY CAPTURED BY A RECENT ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER 
PASS. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH SAT DIMINISHING 
SAT NIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 
8 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER SHORT WAVE 
TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT THE 
BASE OF A LONGER AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO 
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG NW 
WINDS AS NOTED IN AN ASCAT PASS FROM 04 UTC. AN ALTIMETER PASS 
FROM 13 UTC INDICATED SEAS TO 7 FT AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE 
GULF. GIVEN THE STRENGTH...FETCH AND DURATION OF THE NW 
FLOW...SEAS TO 8 FT ARE LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND MIDDLE GULF 
BY LATE TODAY. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE SAT AS 
THE TROUGH LIFTS NE. GENERALLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST 
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WINDS INCREASING AGAIN BY MID 
WEEK.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SAMPLED 
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF DUE TO A LOCALIZED 
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT COMBINED WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THESE 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH JUST AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AS THE 
DRAINAGE FLOW SUBSIDES. LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST 
TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE AREA THIS 
WEEKEND WITH STRONG HIGH PRES AND ATTENDANT RIDGING BUILDING 
ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE 
INDUCED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SAT NIGHT WITH MODEL GUIDANCE 
INDICATING MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS BY SUN NIGHT...PERSISTING 
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN DIMINISHING BY MID WEEK.

ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING 
THROUGH NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO...BUT WILL 
LOSE DEFINITION AS IT PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC WATERS LATER 
TODAY. DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION NEAR A LOW PERS NEAR 14N113W.

1028 MB HIGH PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 35N133W. A RIDGE EXTENDS SE 
FROM THE HIGH THROUGH 32N127W TO 17N108W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT 
EXISTS ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS SW OF THE RIDGING AND N OF 
THE ITCZ WITH RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWING FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADES FROM 13N TO 22N W OF 124W. CONFUSED SEAS IN MIXED SWELL 
SURROUNDS THE AREA OF TRADES. THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL 
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE HIGH 
PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS.
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...

NEARLY STATIONARY 1010 MB LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON 
TROUGH NEAR 08N106W. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS WENT RIGHT OVER 
THIS SURFACE LOW AND SHOWED ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AROUND 
THE CIRCULATION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 
180 NM IN THE W QUADRANT. MEANWHILE 7-9 FT SEAS IN MIXED SW AND 
NW SWELL IS LOCATED SE OF THE LOW. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN THROUGH 
24 HOURS EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY 48 HOURS.

A PAIR OF WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRES AREAS ARE LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL 
WATERS. THE EASTERN LOW IS NEAR 13N113W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW. THE 
WESTERN LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 13N120W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM IN THE NE AND 60 NM IN THE W QUADRANTS 
OF THE LOW. WINDS NEAR BOTH LOWS ARE LIGHT WITH SEAS RUNNING 6-8 
FT. NO DEVELOPMENT OF EITHER LOW IS ANTICIPATED WITH DISSIPATION 
FOR BOTH EXPECTED BY SAT.

$$
LEWITSKY