000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060939
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC FRI NOV 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 11N91W TO LOW 
PRES NEAR 08N106W TO 08N111W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N124W 
TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 09N 
BETWEEN 85W AND 90W...FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 129W AND 134W... 
AND ALSO FROM 06N TO 09N W OF 136W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
SOUTHERN ARIZONA NEAR 32N112W TO 28N111W TO 21N107W...WHILE 
SHARP SURFACE RIDGING IS NOSING DOWN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE    
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH ANOTHER INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH 
REACHING FROM THE CALIFORNIA CHANNEL ISLANDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH 
29N117W TO 22N113W. THIS VERY TIGHT PRES PATTERN IS HELPING TO 
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA S OF 
29N WHICH WAS NICELY CAPTURED BY A RECENT ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER 
PASS. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH SAT DIMINISHING 
SAT NIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 
8 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

1028 MB HIGH PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 35N133W. A RIDGE EXTENDS SE 
FROM THE HIGH THROUGH 32N127W TO 17N108W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT 
EXISTS ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS SW OF THE RIDGING AND N OF 
THE ITCZ WITH RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWING FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADES FROM 13N TO 22N W OF 124W. CONFUSED SEAS IN MIXED SWELL 
SURROUNDS THE AREA OF TRADES. THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL 
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE HIGH 
PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SAMPLED 
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF DUE TO A LOCALIZED 
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT COMBINED WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THESE 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH JUST AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AS THE 
DRAINAGE FLOW SUBSIDES. LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST 
TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE AREA THIS 
WEEKEND WITH STRONG HIGH PRES AND ATTENDANT RIDGING BUILDING 
ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE 
INDUCED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SAT NIGHT WITH MODEL GUIDANCE 
NOW INDICATING MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE SUN. THE GALE 
CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY LET UP TO 20-30 KT BY SUN AFTERNOON 
BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS OCCURS SUN 
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

NEARLY STATIONARY 1010 MB LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON 
TROUGH NEAR 08N106W. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS WENT RIGHT OVER 
THIS SURFACE LOW AND SHOWED ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AROUND 
THE CIRCULATION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 
180 NM IN THE W QUADRANT. MEANWHILE 7-9 FT SEAS IN MIXED SW AND 
NW SWELL IS LOCATED SE OF THE LOW. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN THROUGH 
24 HOURS EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY 48 HOURS.

A PAIR OF WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRES AREAS ARE LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL 
WATERS. THE EASTERN LOW IS NEAR 13N113W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW. THE 
WESTERN LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 13N120W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM IN THE NE AND 60 NM IN THE W QUADRANTS 
OF THE LOW. WINDS NEAR BOTH LOWS ARE LIGHT WITH SEAS RUNNING 6-8 
FT. NO DEVELOPMENT OF EITHER LOW IS ANTICIPATED WITH DISSIPATION 
FOR BOTH EXPECTED BY SAT.

$$
LEWITSKY