000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC THU NOV 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 10N88W TO 13N94W 
TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N105W 1009 MB TO 06N109W. IT THEN RESUMES AT 
LOW PRES NEAR 13N111W 1011 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N119W 1009 MB 
TO 10N120W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 10N121W AND CONTINUES TO 
08N130W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 
11N BETWEEN 84W AND 100W...FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 110W AND 114W 
AND FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 130W AND 136W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE 
NORTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TO 24N124W CONTINUES 
TO INDUCE MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA AND OFF THE COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...INCREASING 
SLIGHTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT AS A 
REINFORCING MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL 
SHIFT EAST THROUGH LATE FRI AHEAD OF ANOTHER MID/UPPER TROUGH 
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST SAT..BRINGING ANOTHER 
PULSE OF FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS DOWN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. 
ELSEWHERE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL OF 8 TO 9 FT PERSISTS IN THE 
WATERS APPROXIMATELY 150 NM OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
SUR. THIS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY AS IT PROPAGATES SW REACHING THE 
AREA WEST OF CLARION ISLAND BY TONIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER 
ROUND OF NW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL REACH THE 
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY LATE MON.

GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS REDUCED BELOW 20 KT AS 
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN 
APPROACHES THE REGION AND RIDGING ALONG CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN 
MEXICO WEAKENS. LOOKING AHEAD...COLD DRY AIR FOLLOWING A FRONT 
MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SAT AND SUN WILL PUSH 
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY SUN WITH WINDS AT OR NEAR 
GALE FORCE SUN NIGHT. THE STRONG GAP FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH 
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...A NEARLY STATIONARY 1009 MB LOW PRES AREA 
CENTERED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 07N105W ENHANCES 
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 210 NM OF THE LOW. ENHANCED 15 KT SW 
WINDS ON THE SE SEMICIRCLE OF THIS LOW ARE INTERACTING WITH NW 
SWELL ACROSS THE REGION...THUS CREATING COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT. 
THE LOW WILL DRIFT WEST ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN THE NEXT 
24 HOURS WHILE WEAKENING. SUBSEQUENTLY...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 
LESS THAN 8 FT.
 
ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRES IS SHIFTING EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE 
REGION...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL DRIFT INTO THE NW CORNER 
OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE 
NOTED IN RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 16N TO 18N W OF 112W. 
ALTIMETER DATA SHOWS SEAS 8 TO 11 FT...HIGHEST W OF 133W. HIGH 
PRES WILL WEAKEN AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST...ALLOWING THE TRADE 
WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AND DECREASE IN AREAL 
EXTENT AS THE NW SWELL DECAYS. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST AND 
REACH FROM 31N130W TO 29N140W THROUGH LATE SAT/EARLY SUN. 
LOOKING AHEAD...STRONG NE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT BY LATE 
SUN. NW SWELL WILL ENVELOP THE REGION N OF 25N AND ALSO THE 
WATERS W OF 125W THROUGH LATE MON.

$$
NR