000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050315
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC THU NOV 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 09N98W TO LOW 
PRES 1008 MB NEAR 07N102W TO 05N111W...WHERE IT IS DISCONTINUOUS 
AND RESUMES AT LOW PRES 1009 MB NEAR 14N109W TO LOW PRES 1009 MB 
NEAR 13N116W TO 07N127W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 07N127W AND 
CONTINUES ALONG 08N134W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 225 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 81W AND 
97W...FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 107W...FROM 13N TO 18N 
BETWEEN 108W AND 112W AND FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 122W AND 126W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS OVER WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH BASE 
EXTENDING SW TO FORECAST WATERS NEAR 20N134W. AN ASSOCIATED 
WEAKENING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE 
REGION...REACHING FROM NORTHERN SINALOA MEXICO TO BAJA 
CALIFORNIA SUR NEAR 24N111W TO 19N120W TO 18N135W. GENERALLY 
MODERATE TO FRESH NW FLOW FOLLOWS THE FRONT ALONG THE PACIFIC 
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. FRESH TO STRONG SW TO W 
WINDS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA...HOWEVER ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH EARLY THU MORNING. 
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFTS NE THROUGH THU ALLOWING THE WEAK 
COLD FRONT TO STALL AND SOON DISSIPATE. SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT IN NW 
SWELL OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE COAST...FORECAST TO SUBSIDE 
TO LESS THAN 8 FT THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. LOOKING AHEAD...MODEL 
GUIDANCE INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA FRI INTO EARLY SUN. SEAS WILL REACH UP TO 6 FT 
WITHIN THAT PERIOD.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A QUICK SURGE OF N-NE 20-25 KT GAP WINDS 
ARE N OF 15N BETWEEN 94.5W AND 95.5W WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 
FT...HOWEVER INCREASING TO 8 FT OVERNIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS ARE 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THU AFTERNOON. LOOKING AHEAD...A 
STRONGER GAP WIND EVENT IS ANTICIPATED STARTING EARLY SUN.
 
WEAK LOW PRES WILL PERSIST ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 102W 
AND 107W THROUGH 48 HOURS. THIS WILL SUPPORT 15 TO 20 KT S TO SW 
FLOW INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP SEAS TO 8 
FT WITHIN 300 TO 370 NM S AND SE OF THE LOW PRES THROUGH THU 
NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD...SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 FT FRI 
AFTERNOON AS THE SWELL DECAYS AND THE LOW WEAKENS.

ELSEWHERE...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS 
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF 
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS BETWEEN 14N AND 20N W OF 130W 
THROUGH EARLY SAT.

$$
NR