000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040346
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC WED NOV 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N87W TO LOW PRES 1008 MB 
NEAR 08N99W TO 06N108W...RESUMING NEAR 15N106W TO LOW PRES 1008 
MB NEAR 14N109W TO LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 12N117W TO 10N130W. THE 
ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 10N130W AND CONTINUES TO A LOW PRES 1009 MB 
NEAR 12N139W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 270 NM S 
OF AXIS BETWEEN 84W AND 96W...FROM 2.5N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 96W AND 
105W...FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 112W AND 118W AND FROM 07N TO 16N 
W OF 133W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 107W AND 111W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LONG WAVE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE 
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE BROAD SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS TROUGH 
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN 
PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE 
TO 21N126W TO 21N140W. SW TO W WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE IN THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 30N BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH SEAS LESS 
THAN 8 FT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED 
EVENING...REDUCING TO 20 KT BY LATE WED NIGHT. THE FRONT IS 
EXPECTED TO STALL OVER S BAJA CALIFORNIA THU BEFORE DISSIPATING 
EARLY FRI. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS WILL PERSIST OFF THE 
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ACCOMPANIED BY 
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH SEAS 8 TO 12 FT TONIGHT...BUT DECAYING 
TO AROUND 8 FT THROUGH EARLY THU. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED NW OF THE 
AREA SUPPORT NE TO E FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH SEAS REACHING 11 
FT IN NE SWELL. ANOTHER AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IS BETWEEN 
THE FRONT AND A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 12N139W. WINDS OF THIS 
MAGNITUDE WILL PREVAIL IN THESE TWO REGIONS THROUGH LATE THU 
WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY REDUCING TO 9 FT WHILE THE FRONT STALL AND 
START DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE GREAT 
BASIN N OF THE AREA MAY INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS IN THE 
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA DURING THE WEEKEND. HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL ALSO INCREASE THE TRADE WINDS ALONG THE MONSOON 
TROUGH WEST OF 116W STARTING THU THROUGH SAT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO 
RELAXED...THUS ACTING TO REDUCE THE GAP WINDS TO 20 KT WITH SEAS 
LESS THAN 8 FT. HOWEVER...FRESH TO STRONG PULSES ARE LIKELY 
DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT WED. LOOKING AHEAD...A STRONGER GAP 
WIND EVENT IS ANTICIPATED FROM EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS AN AREA OF SEAS TO 8 FT S OF 06N BETWEEN 95W AND 120W 
MAINLY DUE TO SECONDARY SW SWELL. THIS SWELL WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 
8 FT FRI.

$$
NR