000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032204
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC TUE NOV 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO LOW PRES 1009 MB 
NEAR 08N98W TO LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 14N110W TO LOW PRES 1009 MB 
NEAR 12N118W TO LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 11N138W TO 11N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 
84W AND 95W...FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W...FROM 12N TO 
18N BETWEEN 103W AND 114W...FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 114W AND 
130W AND FROM 07N TO 15N W OF 133W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A LONG WAVE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE BROAD 
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY 
EXTENDING FROM THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA...ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TO WELL WEST OF THE 
AREA OR FROM 29N114W TO 22N126W TO 22N140W. SW TO W WINDS OF 20 
KT ARE N OF 30N BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. THESE 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE UP TO 25 KT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE 
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER S 
BAJA CALIFORNIA THU NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING FRI. MODERATE TO 
FRESH NW WINDS WILL PERSIST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LONG PERIOD NW 
SWELL WITH SEAS 8 TO 12 FT THIS EVENING...BUT DECAYING TO AROUND 
8 FT THROUGH LATE THU. LOOKING AHEAD...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER 
THE GREAT BASIN N OF THE AREA MAY INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG NW 
WINDS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY THE 
WEEKEND.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO 
IS CAUSING FRESH GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH 
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. HOWEVER...FRESH TO STRONG PULSES ARE LIKELY 
DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER THE NEXT 
TWO DAYS. LOOKING AHEAD...A STRONGER GAP WIND EVENT IS 
ANTICIPATED BY EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH THE NIGHT HOURS.

THERE IS AN AREA OF SEAS TO 8 FT...PRIMARILY DUE TO SW SWELL...S 
OF 05N BETWEEN 95W AND 120W. LOOKING AHEAD...THE SW SWELL WILL 
SUBSIDE THROUGH FRI BELOW 8 FT.

ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD 
FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE. TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE 
MONSOON TROUGH WEST OF 125W THROUGH THU AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS 
N OF THE AREA. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH NW SWELL...ALSO MIXING 
WITH SW SWELL...ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH COMBINED SEAS 8 TO 
10 FT WED AND THU FROM 12N TO 22N W OF 115W.

$$
NR