000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031604
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC TUE NOV 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM08N78W TO LOW PRES 1009 MB NEAR 
07N97W TO LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 15N110W TO LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 
31N118W TO 13N130W TO LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 11N138W TO 11N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 85W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 105W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 120W 
AND 125W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF 
AXIS W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A LONG WAVE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS 
MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THIS MORNING. THE BROAD 
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS TROUGH IS THE MAIN DRIVER OVER THE 
PACIFIC WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AN 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE FAR NORTHERN 
PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE 
TO WELL WEST OF THE AREA. AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 04 UTC 
INDICATED 15 TO 20 KT SW TO W WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE 
FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 30N. IT IS LIKELY THAT 
STRONG WESTERLIES ARE STARTING IN THIS AREA. ALTHOUGH THIS MAY 
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WED...THE FETCH IS TOO LIMITED ACROSS THE 
NARROW GULF TO GENERATE SEAS MORE THAN 6 FT. MODERATE W FLOW 
WILL PERSIST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF AS THE FRONT GLIDES 
SOUTH THROUGH EARLY WED...BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING THU 
AND FRI. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS WILL PERSIST OFF THE PACIFIC 
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED 
BY LONG PERIOD NW WITH SEAS 8 TO 12 FT TODAY...BUT DECAYING TO 
AROUND 8 FT THROUGH LATE THU AS IT PROPAGATES SOUTHWARD TO THE 
WATERS WEST OF CLARION ISLAND. LOOKING AHEAD...HIGH PRES 
BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN N OF THE AREA MAY INDUCE FRESH TO 
STRONG NW WINDS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
BY LATE WEEK.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO 
IS CAUSING FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. THIS WILL ABATE THROUGH TODAY 
AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS...BUT BRIEF FRESH TO STRONG PULSES ARE 
LIKELY DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LOOKING AHEAD...A STRONGER GAP WIND 
EVENT IS ANTICIPATED BY LATE SATURDAY POSSIBLY REACHING GALE 
FORCE BY SUNDAY.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...AN UPPER TROUGH ORIENTED EAST TO WEST ALONG 
11N IS ASSISTING IN ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH 
BETWEEN 85W AND 105W...DESPITE SOMEWHAT WEAK SW FLOW. A FEW 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED OFF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN 
COAST FROM NORTHERN COSTA RICA TO GUATEMALA...RELATED TO 
OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE LAND AND WILL BE DISSIPATING 
SHORTLY. ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA FROM THIS MORNING INDICATES 
AREAS OF SEAS 6 TO 8 FT...PRIMARILY DUE TO SW SWELL...S OF 05N 
BETWEEN 95W AND 110W. LOOKING AHEAD...THE SW SWELL WILL SUBSIDE 
THROUGH THU BELOW 8 FT. SPORADIC CONVECTION WILL PERSIST ALONG 
THE MONSOON TROUGH.

ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD 
FRONT CURRENTLY REACHING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO 
24N123W TO 23N140W. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH SEAS 8 TO 12 FT 
ARE NOTED IN A PAIR OF ALTIMETER PASSES FROM EARLIER THIS 
MORNING. THIS IS PART OF A LARGER AREA COVERING THE REGION N OF 
22N W OF 120W. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT W OF 
130W AS FAR N AS 27N. A SERIES OF LOW PRES AREAS ARE NOTED ALONG 
THE MONSOON TROUGH. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO 
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION AROUND LOW PRES 
NEAR 15N110W. SCATTERED CONVECTION PERSISTS ALONG THE MONSOON 
TROUGH FARTHER WEST WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS NOT AS 
ABUNDANT. TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH 
WEST OF 125W THROUGH THU AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA. 
THIS WILL INTERACT WITH THE NW SWELL...ALSO MIXING WITH SW 
SWELL...ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH COMBINED SEAS 8 TO 10 FT 
WED AND THU FROM 12N TO 22N W OF 115W.

$$
CHRISTENSEN