000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031003
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC TUE NOV 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 08N90W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 08N97W 1009 MB TO 13N104W TO LOW PRES NEAR 14N110W 1008 MB 
TO 13N115W TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N119.5W 1008 MB TO 10N125W TO 
10N131W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N137W 1008 MB TO 09N140W. SCATTERED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 106W-
109W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
240 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 95W-104W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 121W-128W...AND 
WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 116W-119W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS PUSHING EASTWARD OVER THE FAR WESTERN 
U.S. WITH ITS SOUTHERN PORTION EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO 19N 
BETWEEN 110W-130W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT 
EXTENDS FROM SE CALIFORNIA SW TO 32N117W TO 26N115W TO 25N140W. 
A LARGE AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING SSE BEHIND THE 
FRONT. THE RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT CURRENTLY SUPPORTS STRONG 
N-NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...WHERE SEAS ARE 9 TO 12 FT IN NW 
SWELL. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP SSE AND REACH SOUTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA BY THU MORNING...WHILE THE W PORTION OF THE FRONT 
STALLS AND BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE. THE HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO 
BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS THROUGH 
WED...PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND LARGE NW SWELL 
W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN THU AND FRI TO ALLOW 
WINDS TO DIMINISH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT THE SW PART 
WHERE E-NE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE AT 20-25 KT AND CONVECTION WILL 
REMAIN ACTIVE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO 
INDUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF 25 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA N OF 30N THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY WED 
AFTERNOON.

AN AREA OF 8-9 FT COMBINED SEAS IN MIXED SWELL SEPARATE FROM THE 
FRONT PREVAILS FROM 11N TO 25N W OF 135W. MODEL WAVE GUIDANCE 
SHOWS THIS AREA OF SWELL SLOWLY SHRINKING IN SIZE THROUGH 
TODAY...AND MERGE WITH THE LARGE AREA OF NW SWELL ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE COLD FRONT BY 24 HOURS.   

STRONG N-NE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS FORECAST TO 
DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN START UP AGAIN 
EARLY TONIGHT INTO LATE TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH 
TO 15-20 KT WED AFTERNOON WITH SEAS 8 FT IN MIXED NE AND SW 
SWELL WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 15N95W TO 13N96W. THE GRADIENT 
WILL TIGHTEN UP AGAIN WED NIGHT USHERING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF 
STRONG N-NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT. THESE CONDITIONS THEN 
SUBSIDE THU AFTERNOON.  

$$
AGUIRRE