000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021606
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC MON NOV 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NW COLOMBIA NEAR 10.5N73.5W 
TO 08N90W TO 10N100W...WHERE IT REMAINS FRACTURED...THEN RESUMES 
NEAR 14.5N101W TO LOW PRES 1009 MB NEAR 14N112W TO LOW PRES 1011 
MB NEAR 13N120.5W TO LOW PRES 1011 MB NEAR 08.5N138W TO 08N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 270 NM S OF 
TROUGH E OF 100W...AND WITHIN 60 NM N AND 270 NM S OF TROUGH AND 
LOWS BETWEEN 104W AND 121W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 240 NM N AND 210 NM S 
OF TROUGH AND LOW W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A TUTT AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM THE NW GULF OF MEXICO SW ACROSS N CENTRAL MEXICO AND 
EXITING THE CONTINENT ACROSS LAS ISLAS TRES MARIAS AND 
CONTINUING SW TO A WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL VORT CENTER NEAR 15N140W. 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES N AND NW OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS FOR ABOUT 500-600 NM. A MODEST 40-45 KT UPPER JET PREVAILS 
ALONG THE S FLANK OF THE TUTT AND EXTENDS NE ACROSS MEXICO. THE 
MONSOON TROUGH LIES ABOUT 240-300 NM TO THE S OF THE 
TUTT...WHERE SPEED DIVERGENCE IS AIDING IN MAINTAINING PULSING 
DEEP CONVECTION. 

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF 
THE AREA THIS MORNING...FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL 
CALIFORNIA TO 30N130W TO 27N140W. A STRONG 1040 MB HIGH IS 
CENTERED NW OF THE FRONT NEAR 43N150W WITH A RIDGE SE BRIDGING 
ACROSS THE FRONT TO 28N130W TO NEAR 22N111W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT IS DRIVING STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST 
WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...WHERE SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 8 
TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY ALL THE 
GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE PROGRESSIVELY SE OVER THE NEW FEW 
DAYS...REACHING CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 19N140W BY WED 
MORNING...AND NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS TO 17N140W BY THU MORNING... 
WHERE THE W PORTIONS OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND 
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT 
WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN WATERS THROUGH 
WED...PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND LARGE NW SWELL 
ACROSS THE WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT AND FRESH NW WINDS ACROSS THE 
COASTAL AND OFFSHORE PACIFIC WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE HIGH 
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY THU AND FRI AND ALLOW FOR WINDS TO 
DIMINISH ACROSS ALL BUT SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHERE E-NE 
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE 20-25 KT AND CONVECTION WILL REMAIN 
ACTIVE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

AN AREA OF 8-9 FT COMBINED SEAS IN MIXED SWELL PREVAILS FROM 
08.5N TO 18N BETWEEN 105W AND 131W. MODEL WAVE GUIDANCE SHOWS 
THIS AREA OF SWELL SLOWLY SHRINKING IN SIZE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...AND MERGE WITH A LARGE AREA OF NW SWELL FORECAST TO THE 
THE S OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT BY 48 HOURS.   

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF TO 14.5N BETWEEN 94.5W 
AND 95.5W THIS MORNING AS NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A GULF OF MEXICO 
COLD FRONT PUSHES S ACROSS SE MEXICO AND THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. THIS FLOW IS FORECAST TO REACH 30 KT EARLY THIS 
EVENING WITH SEAS UP TO 10 FT...THEN DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT LATE 
TONIGHT AND TO 15-20 KT BY TUE AFTERNOON. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 8 FT 
IN MIXED SWELL DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF BY LATE TUE NIGHT WITHIN 
THE AREA FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 95W-98W.

$$
STRIPLING