000 AXPZ20 KNHC 011118 AAA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1118 UTC SUN NOV 01 2015 UPDATED ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH CONVECTION TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NW COLOMBIA TO 07N77W TO 09N90W. IT RESUMES FROM A 1012 MB LOW PRES AT 15N107W TO 13N116W ...TO ANOTHER 1012 MB LOW PRES AT 12N125W TO 11N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 02N- 09N BETWEEN 80W-99W..AND WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 134W-139W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 77W-80W MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A 1010 MB LOW AT 04N79W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 130W-134W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM W TEXAS...SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS NW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 16N125W. THE TROUGH IS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE TROPICS JUST N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT DRY AIR ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WITH 250-300 MB STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTING AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 17N128W. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY MON WITH SW UPPER FLOW FOLLOWING IN BEHIND IT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 18N. THIS UPPER FLOW THEN STRENGTHENS LATE MON THROUGH TUE AS A STRONGER TROUGH SWINGS SE ACROSS THE N CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA. THE UPPER SW FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP TROPICS NE ACROSS PORTION OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A NEARLY STATIONARY SUBTROPICAL 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N135W WILL BREAK DOWN SUN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN WATERS. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES 30N EARLY MON AND BE OVERTAKEN BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRES EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS. THE RESULTANT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND LARGE NW SWELL IN WATERS W OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING THIS SCENARIO. SEVERAL WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ENE THROUGH MON. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND HIGH PRES TO THE N WILL KEEP NE 15-20 KT WINDS S OF 20N AND W OF 120W THROUGH TODAY...BEFORE THE TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT INCREASES TRADE WINDS TONIGHT AND MON. AN AREA OF 8-10 FT COMBINED SEAS MAINLY IN NW SWELL IS PRESENT W OF A LINE FROM 32N123W TO 12N130W TO 10N140W. MODEL WAVE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE AREA OF SWELL SLOWLY SHRINKING IN SIZE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF TO 15N BETWEEN 94W-96W BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING...AND AGAIN LATE TUE NIGHT. $$ AGUIRRE