000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312120
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SAT OCT 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 09N90W TO 14N95W TO 
14N114W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N125W 1009 MB TO 07N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 420 NM S OF TROUGH 
BETWEEN 83W AND 113W...AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH W OF 127W. 

...DISCUSSION...

SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM W TEXAS...SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS 
NW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 16N125W. TROUGH 
HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE TROPICS JUST N OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS 
THE SAME GENERAL AREA ACROSS THE TROPICS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL 
DAYS AND WILL HELP TO SUPPORT A CONTINUED TRANSPORT OF TROPICAL 
MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. 

NEARLY STATIONARY 1024 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N135W 
WILL BREAK DOWN SUN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN WATERS. 
THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES 30N EARLY MON AND OVERTAKEN 
BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRES EXPECTED TO PRESS SOUTHWARD 
OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS. THE RESULTANT TIGHT PRESSURE 
GRADIENT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS 
AND LARGE NW SWELL IN WATERS W OF NORTHERN BAJA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SEVERAL WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON 
TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ENE THROUGH MON. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N WILL KEEP NE 15-20 
KT WINDS S OF 20N AND W OF 120W THROUGH SUN BEFORE THE TIGHTER 
PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT INCREASES 
TRADE WINDS SUN NIGHT AND MON. 

AN AREA OF 8-10 FT COMBINED SEAS MAINLY IN NW SWELL COVERS MOST 
OF THE FORECAST AREA N OF 10N W OF 120W. WAVE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE 
AREA OF SWELL SLOWLY SHRINKING IN SIZE THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...STRONG TO NEAR-GALE NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING...WITH A SECONDARY 
WEAKER SURGE THE NEXT NIGHT.

$$
MUNDELL