000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310225
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SAT OCT 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM  07N78W TO 15N95W TO 12N108W TO 
14N120W TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N125W 1010 MB TO 09N132W...THEN ITCZ 
TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
30 NM N AND 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 114W-129W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NEW MEXICO ACROSS NW 
MEXICO AND BAJA PENINSULA TO 17N123W SUPPORTS WEAKENING TROUGH 
FROM 30N108W TO SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. FRESH TO STRONG 
NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE N OF 27N IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THE 
NEXT 6-12 HOURS WITH MAX SEAS TO 8 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SAT 
AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. ASCAT DATA EARLIER TODAY SHOWED 
LARGE AREA OF 15-20 KT WINDS W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA TO WESTERN 
WATERS NEAR 130W-135W NORTH OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE BOUNDARY... 
WITH HIGHEST WINDS EVIDENT FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 121W-125W. 

AREA OF 8-10 FT COMBINED SEAS MAINLY IN NW SWELL COVERS NW PART 
OF FORECAST AREA. WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AREA OF SWELL SLOWLY 
SHRINKING IN SIZE TO AN AREA ROUGHLY N OF 10N W OF 125W THIS 
WEEKEND. SW SWELL TO 7-8 FT PREVAILS OVER SE PART...WITH SEAS TO 
8-9 FT FROM 09N-12N BETWEEN 102W-130W. SHRINKING AREA OF MIXED 
SW AND NW SWELL WILL PERSIST S OF MONSOON TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. 

NEARLY STATIONARY 1025 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N135W 
WILL BE SHUNTED ASIDE SUN NIGHT AS STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO 
NORTHERN WATERS. FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 34N119W TO 30N140W EARLY 
MON...AND FROM 28N113W TO 24N130W TO 26N140W TUE MORNING. EXPECT 
ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND LARGE NW SWELL FOR 
WATERS W OF NORTHERN BAJA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ELSEWHERE...STRONG TO NEAR-GALE NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING...WITH SECONDARY WEAKER 
SURGE THE NEXT NIGHT.

$$
MUNDELL