000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301022
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC FRI OCT 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NW COLOMBIA W TO 10N84W AND NW 
TO 14N94W TO 17N102W. IT RESUMES AT 11N110W TO 15N119W TO LOW 
PRES NEAR 15N122W 1010 MB TO 11N128W TO 08N135W...THEN ITCZ TO 
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 113W-117W...AND ALSO WITHIN 240 NM S OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 124W-128W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 128W-131W...AND WITHIN 60 NM NE OF TROUGH BETWEEN 91W-
95W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ARIZONA SW TO OVER 
FAR NW MEXICO AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND TO NEAR 20N122W 
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ALONG A POSITION FROM 28N111W SW TO ACROSS 
THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND TO 26N113W. AN ASCAT PASS 
FROM 0405 UTC LAST NIGHT SUGGESTED THAT FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS 
ARE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH NW WINDS 30 KT IN THE FAR NORTHERN 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHERE SEAS ARE TO 8 FT. THE 0542 UTC ASCAT 
SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS OVER THE NE PORTION N OF 28N 
BETWEEN 117W-124W. THIS AREA OF WINDS EXTENDS WELL N OF 32N TO 
ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. LARGE NW SWELL ENHANCED BY THIS 
NW FLOW IS RESULTING IN SEAS OF 11-13 FT WITHIN THIS PORTION OF 
THE AREA. SEAS ARE 8-11 FT ELSEWHERE N OF A LINE FROM 24N112W TO 
10N119W TO 04N104W...WITH THE HIGHEST OF THESE SEAS FROM 11N-15N 
BETWEEN 122W-134W. THESE SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO BE N OF 10N AND 
W OF A LINE FROM 32N120W TO 10N133W BY EARLY SUN. MODEL GUIDANCE 
SHOWS STRONG NW WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH 
TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO MODERATE INTENSITY SAT MORNING WITH 
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4-5 FT.
 
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE THROUGH THE SE PERIPHERY OF THE 
UPPER TROUGH IS TRIGGERING OFF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION OVER 
AN AREA CONFINED FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 103W-106W. SE-S 20 TO 
25 KT WINDS ARE PRESENT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THESE WINDS ARE 
FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH PULLS OFF THE TO THE NE. 
 
A WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED ON THE MONSOON TROUGH AT 15N122W. 
THE LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE 
GFS MODEL SHOWS W-SW WINDS SOUTH OF TROUGH AXIS STRENGTHENING 
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING SEAS TO BE MAINLY IN THE  
8-9 FT RANGE WITH POSSIBLY A FEW POCKETS OF SEAS TO 10 FT FROM 
08N-16N BETWEEN 110W-121W.

ELSEWHERE...A 1026 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 
34N137W WITH A RIDGE SE TO 24N128W TO 20N117W WILL WEAKEN 
SLIGHTLY AS IT DRIFTS SE TO NEAR 33N135W BY LATE TONIGHT...AND 
TO NEAR 32N136W BY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. A WEAKENING COLD 
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA BEHIND THE 
HIGH.

LOOKING BEYOND 48 HOURS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO 
NORTHERN WATERS MON THEN WEAKEN AS IT SWEEPS INTO THE BAJA 
PENINSULA TUE.

$$
AGUIRRE