000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292140
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC THU OCT 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 13N102W TO 11N111W TO 
15N123W TO 08N135W...THEN ITCZ TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 99W-101W...WITHIN 90 
NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 118-120W...AND WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 
123W-126W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WESTERN ARIZONA THROUGH 
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 23N121W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT NEAR 
THE SURFACE FROM 30N113W TO 28N116W TO 27N124W. SCATTEROMETER 
DATA SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH 25 
KT WINDS N OF 29N BETWEEN 117W-123W ENHANCING LARGE BACKGROUND 
NW SWELL TO PRODUCE 11-13 FT SEAS. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SE INTO 
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN. 
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG NW WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRI. EXPECT 20-30 KT 
WINDS N OF 28N-29N WITH SEAS TO 8-9 FT. 

A DISTINCT MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IS ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF WEAK 
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS CENTERED NEAR 13N106W...15N124W 
AND 12N128W. NONE OF THE LOWS ARE LIKELY TO BE MUCH MORE THAN A 
FOCUS FOR CYCLONIC VORTICITY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH SAT. 
THE GFS MODEL SHOWS W-SW SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS STRENGTHENING 
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING SEAS TO GRADUALLY BUILD 
TO 8-10 FT FROM 07N-15N BETWEEN 103W-120W BY SUN EVENING. 

ELSEWHERE...1025 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N138W WILL 
DRIFT EASTWARD TO AROUND 32N135W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN 
BECOME STATIONARY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN 
WATERS MON THEN WEAKEN AS IT SWEEPS INTO THE BAJA PENINSULA TUE.

$$ 
MUNDELL