000 AXPZ20 KNHC 291528 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU OCT 29 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1445 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W 11N92W TO 1010 MB LOW NEAR 13N105W TO 11N111W TO 1011 MB LOW NEAR 16N123W TO A SECOND 1011 MB LOW NEAR 12N128W TO 9N135W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ TO 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 2N- 7N...FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 96W-103W...FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 105W- 113W...AND FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 112W-128W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120/150 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 95W- 101W AND FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 102W-109W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N E OF 120W...AN MID/UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE...AND ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH HAS FORMED A WEAK COLD FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH LATE FRI. STRONG NW TO N WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS OFF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. RESULTANT SEAS WILL MIX WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL MOVING INTO THE AREA AS WELL. COMBINED SEAS ARE BUILDING TO 12 TO 13 FT NEAR AND WEST OF GUADALUPE ISLAND...AND 7 TO 11 FT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WATERS ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WEST FLOW WILL PUNCH THROUGH RELATIVELY LOWER TERRAIN IN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SPILL ACROSS THE WATERS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER PUSH OF NW WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA EARLY FRI...WHEN SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA BY FRI FROM 26N112W TO 21N121W THEN DISSIPATE S OF BAJA FROM 23N106W TO 18N113W EARLY SAT. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TRAIL THE FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT THEN RECEDE N OF 30N BY EARLY FRI. S OF 15N E OF 120W...A WEAK PERTURBATION IS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AS A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 13N105W AND COUPLED WITH SW SWELL HAS SEAS TO 8 FT FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 100W-106W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OVER THE SW QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF OLAF IS NOW MOVED WEST OF 140W. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FROM 26N TO 29N W OF 137W BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND 1026 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED TO THE NORTH. SEAS ARE TO 12 FT...INDICATIVE OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL MOVING INTO THE REGION. FARTHER SOUTH...A WEAK 1011 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 16N123W WITH A SECOND NEAR 12N128W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM N QUADRANT OF THE LOW NEAR 16N123W. THE NW SWELL IS RAPIDLY OVERTAKING AND MIXING WITH THE LOCALLY GENERATED SEAS IN THIS AREA. THE LOW NEAR 16N123W WILL DRIFT SE TO 13N120W BY FRIDAY MORNING WHILE THE LOW NEAR 13N128W WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS EXPECT THE LOW NEAR 13N105W IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT LIFTS NORTH AND DISCONNECTS FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH LATE TODAY. THE ENERGY WILL THEN MERGE WITH THE REMAINING ENERGY FROM THE LOW NEAR 16N123W TO FORM A NEW LOW NEAR 12N111W. THE NEW LOW WILL THEN BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND DRIFTING EASTWARD TO NEAR 15N110W BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE SEAS TO 9 FT IN THE FRESH SW FLOW OCCURRING NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE LOW PRES CENTER. $$ PAW