000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290242
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC THU OCT 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09.5N73W TO 10N91W TO 
14.5N105W TO 12N110W TO LOW PRES 1010 MB NEAR 16.5N123W TO LOW 
PRES 1010 MB NEAR 13.5N128.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N AND 240 NM S OF AXIS E OF 
89W...WITHIN 360 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 100W AND 120W...AND 
WITHIN 240 NM S OF TROUGH AND LOWS BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF 
COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 97W AND 107W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 130W...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE HAS BUILT SE AND 
ACROSS THE NE WATERS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...FROM A 1025 MB 
HIGH NEAR 33N141W THROUGH 31N127W TO 20N109W. THIS IS RESULTING 
IN A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE 
BREEZES ACROSS THIS AREA. A STALLED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 
THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE 
AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. 
STRONG NW TO N WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ACROSS THE PACIFIC 
WATERS OFF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE...MIXING WITH LONGER PERIOD 
NW SWELL MOVING INTO THE AREA AS WELL. COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD 
TO 12 TO 13 FT NEAR AND WEST OF GUADALUPE ISLAND...AND 7 TO 12 
FT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WATERS ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE 
BAJA PENINSULA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG WEST FLOW WILL 
PUNCH THROUGH RELATIVELY LOWER TERRAIN IN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 
SPILL ACROSS THE WATERS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA IN NARROW PLUMES THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BE 
FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER PUSH OF NW WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA FRI...WHEN SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT. THE FRONT IS 
EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA BY FRI AFTERNOON FROM 
CABO SA LAZARO TO ABOUT 21N120W..WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS 
THEN BEGINNING TO RECEDE N OF 27N. 
 
FARTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED CONVECTION PERSISTS NEAR A BROAD AND 
WEAK LOW PRES AREA ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 105W...WHICH 
CONTINUES TO FORCE CONVECTION ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTS FROM JUST 
EAST OF ACAPULCO TO PUERTO VALLARTA AND EXTENDS INLAND TO THE 
GULF OF MEXICO COASTS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT 
LIFTS NORTH AND DISCONNECTS FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH THU. 
LOOKING AHEAD...WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ACROSS THE REGION 
STARTING SAT AS THE NW SWELL DECAYS AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS TO 
THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

S OF 15N E OF 120W...SEVERAL WEAK AND SPORADIC PERTURBATIONS 
CONTINUE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. WHILE SW FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY 
LIGHT TO MODERATE INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH...PERSISTENT SW SWELL 
IN THE AREA IS MAINTAINING SEAS 6 TO 7 FT. THE CONVERGING SW 
FLOW IS ALSO SUPPORTING AREAS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON 
TROUGH BETWEEN 85W AND 135W. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
INDICATING A LOW PRES AREA BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED 
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND DRIFTING EASTWARD TO 
NEAR 14N113W BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE SEAS TO 
9 FT IN THE FRESH SW FLOW OCCURRING NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE LOW 
PRES CENTER.

ELSEWHERE...THE REMNANT LOW OF OLAF IS CENTERED NEAR 
25N137.5W...MOVING SW NEAR 13 KT. NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUE 
WITHIN 240 NM ACROSS THE NW SEMICIRCLE DUE TO THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW. WINDS WILL 
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO A 
TROUGH AND CROSS W OF 140W OVERNIGHT. LOCALIZED SEAS ARE MIXING 
WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL MOVING TROUGH THE AREA...WITH COMBINED 
SEAS HEIGHTS REACHING 15 FT TO THE NW OF THE LOW PRES. THE NW 
SWELL WILL COVER MOST OF THE AREA W OF 125W THROUGH LATE 
THU...AND WILL HAVE MERGED BY THEN WITH SWELL BEHIND THE SINKING 
COLD FRONT. FARTHER SOUTH...A SERIES OF LOW CENTERS ALONG THE 
MONSOON TROUGH ARE PRODUCING FRESH NE TO E WINDS NORTH OF THE 
LOWS AND MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. SEAS ARE 7-9 FT 
ACROSS THIS AREA AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 6-7 FT EARLY FRI 
BEFORE INCREASING TO 7-9 FT AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE 
SW MONSOONAL FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND 20 KT THERE. 

$$
STRIPLING