000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280931 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED OCT 28 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0830 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 09N93W TO LOW PRES 1009 MB NEAR 15N104W TO 12N110W TO LOW PRES 1009 MB NEAR 15N125W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 94W AND 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 117W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 127W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N W OF 120W...HIGH PRES WEST OF THE AREA HAS DISSIPATED AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS IS RESULTING IN A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS IT APPROACHES LAND. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ADJACENT WATERS LATE TODAY AND INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. STRONG NW TO N WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TONIGHT...MIXING WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL MOVING INTO THE AREA AS WELL. COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12 TO 13 FT NEAR AND WEST OF GUADALUPE ISLAND...7 TO 12 FT ELSEWHERE ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE PENINSULA. STRONG WEST FLOW WILL PUNCH THROUGH RELATIVELY LOWER TERRAIN IN BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE ALONG 30N AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER PUSH OF NW WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF FRI. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT IN THE NORTHERN GULF FRI. FARTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED CONVECTION PERSISTS NEAR A WEAK LOW PRES AREA ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 104W. THIS LOW WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AS IT LIFTS NORTH AWAY FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH THU AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. LOOKING AHEAD...WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ACROSS THE REGION STARTING SAT AS THE SWELL DECAYS AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. S OF 15N E OF 110W...A FEW WEAK AND SPORADIC PERTURBATIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. WHILE SW FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH...PERSISTENT SW SWELL IN THE AREA IS MAINTAINING SEAS 6 TO 7 FT. THE CONVERGING SW FLOW IS ALSO SUPPORTING AREAS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 94W AND 97W. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACTIVE ALONG THE COASTS OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA DUE TO OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING A LOW PRES AREA BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND DRIFTING EASTWARD TO NEAR 13N110W BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE SEAS TO 8 FT NEAR THE LOW PRES ENHANCED IN PART DUE TO NW SWELL MOVING INTO THE AREA. ELSEWHERE...THE REMNANT LOW OF OLAF CENTERED NEAR 26N134W IS STARTING TO MAKE ITS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AS STEERING CURRENTS BECOME GOVERNED BY A RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF THE AREA. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED WINDS WERE REACHING GALE FORCE ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW...BUT MORE RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 0530 UTC INDICTED THIS HAS DIMINISHED A BIT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH AND CROSS W OF 140W TONIGHT. LOCALIZED SEAS ARE MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL MOVING TROUGH THE AREA...WITH COMBINED SEAS HEIGHTS REACHING 15 FT TO THE NW OF THE LOW PRES. THE NW SWELL WILL COVER MOST OF THE AREA W OF 125W THROUGH LATE THU. THE STRONG WINDS WILL END AS THE WEAKENING TROUGH MOVES W OF 140W TONIGHT...AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 8 TO 9 FT THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FARTHER SOUTH...A 1009 MB LOW REMAINS CENTERED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 15N125W. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED FRESH NE TO E WINDS NORTH OF THE LOW AND MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS ARE LIKELY REACHING 8 FT WITHIN 150 NM OF THE LOW. NW SWELL WILL OVERTAKE THE POSITION OF LOW BY LATE THU WITH BUILDING TO 9 FT. THIS LOW HAS BEEN IN THIS GENERALLY AREA FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST AND DISSIPATE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH THU NIGHT. $$ CHRISTENSEN