000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280245
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC WED OCT 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW OF OLAF 
CONTINUES TO SHEAR FARTHER AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE CENTER  
HAS MOVED TO NEAR 27.5N134.5W WITH RISING PRESSURE TO 1005 MB. 
NE GALES TO 35 KT ARE ASSUMED TO CONTINUE WITHIN 120 NM ACROSS 
THE NW QUADRANT...AND THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR 
THIS SYSTEM THROUGH 0600 UTC WED. ELSEWHERE LARGE NW SWELL 
GENERATED BEHIND A COLD FRONT JUST TO THE NW OF THE REMNANT LOW 
OF OLAF IS MIXING WITH THE WAVE FIELD CREATED BY THE LOW TO 
PRODUCE SEAS OF 8 TO 13 FT WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER. THE 
REMNANT LOW OF OLAF IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MAKE A SHARP 
SOUTH THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TURN OVERNIGHT AS IS BECOMES INVOLVED 
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY TO ITS NW. THE WIND FIELD OF 
20-25 KT OCCURRING ACROSS THE N AND NW PORTIONS WILL THEN EXPAND 
AND MERGE WITH WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE REMNANT LOW 
MOVES W-SW AND REACHES W OF 140W THU MORNING. LARGE NW SWELL 
WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NW PORTIONS TONIGHT THROUGH WED 
TO PRODUCE SEAS OF 8 TO 15 FT ON WED. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS 
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS 
HEADER MIAHSFEP2...NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC FOR 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09.5N74W TO 08N90W TO 
14N105W TO 16.5N123W TO 14N127W TO LOW PRES NEAR 16.5N131W 1011 
MB TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N AND 300 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 88W AND 
130W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 01.5N TO 06.5N W OF 
138W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 130W...AT THE SURFACE...WEAK RIDGING PREVAILS 
ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA...CENTERED ON A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 
33N125W THAT EXTENDS S AND SE TO NEAR 20N110W. THIS PATTERN IS 
MAINTAINING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE 
REGION...RESULTING IN GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE NW BREEZE ALONG 
THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE 
TRADEWINDS BETWEEN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND 20N W OF 115W. LITTLE 
CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED EVENING...WHEN A REINFORCING COLD 
FRONT WILL SINK S ACROSS THE NE WATERS AND ALONG THE UPPER COAST 
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE...WHERE NORTHERLY WINDS 20-25 KT WILL 
BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE FURTHER S FRONT 
FROM 28N113.5W TO 24N120W TO 27N131W BY THU AFTERNOON WITH 
STRONG NW TO N WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE N AND E 
OF 125W. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS IN FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL 7 TO 10 
FT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. TO THE W 
OF 130W...CONFUSED SEAS WILL PREVAIL AS THE REMNANT LOW OF OLAF 
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SEAS OF 8-9 FT THAT WILL MIX WITH LARGE NW 
SWELL MOVING INTO THE AREA...AS MENTIONED ABOVE.

S OF 15N E OF 130W...LIGHT TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS GENERALLY 
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 130W...WITH 
THIS PATTERN TO DOMINATE THE TROPICS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE CONVERGING ALONG AND S OF THE TROUGH 
WILL MAINTAIN PERIODS OF PULSING MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION. 
SEAS AROUND 8 FT CURRENTLY PREVAIL ACROSS TWO ZONES ALONG AND S 
OF THE TROUGH...FROM 11.5N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 121W AND 130W...AND 
FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 93W AND 102W...WHERE SW WINDS NEAR 20 KT 
AREA CREATING WIND WAVES MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS 
EQUATORIAL SWELL. THESE WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE 
SLIGHTLY IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10-15 
KT THIS EVENING....WHILE DOWNSTREAM SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW 8 
FT. WINDS ACROSS THE GULF ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHERLY 
WEDNESDAY WITH PERSISTING SEAS IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE. 

$$
STRIPLING