000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260945 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON OCT 26 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM OLAF IS W OF 140W AND THE DISCUSSION AREA...CENTERED NEAR 24.1N 142.0W AT 0900 UTC...MOVING NORTHEAST OR 040 DEGREES AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB. SEE LATEST CPHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HFOTCMCP5/WTPA25 PHFO FOR MORE DETAILS. OLAF IS FORECAST TO CONTINUING MOVING NE AND CROSS 140W LATER THIS MORNING...REACHING 25.4N 140.1W BY 1800 UTC...AS A 50 KT TROPICAL STORM...THEN CONTINUING TO MOVE NE AND WEAKEN TO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM AS IT REACHES 27.8N 135.1W BY 1800 UTC TUE. OLAF WILL WEAK FURTHER TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR 28.2N 133.2W LATE TUE...START TO DRIFT BACK TO THE SW AS A REMNANT LOW THROUGH WED AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH. THE REMNANT LOW OF OLAF WILL DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER THROUGH THU AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NW. SW SWELLS GENERATED BY OLAF CONTINUE TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ACROSS NW WATERS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT W OF A LINE FROM 30N125W TO 19N140W. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FUNNELING SOUTH AND INCREASING TO GALE FORCE AS THE WINDS PUSH INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING. WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN NO CONCLUSIVE WIND OBSERVATIONS AS YET FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A 07 UTC ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASS OVER THE AREA INDICATED SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT...INDIRECTLY SHOWING STRONG GAP WINDS IN THE AREA. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH LATE TODAY BELOW GALE FORCE...THEN DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY EARLY TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12 FT BY THIS MORNING DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THEN SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY TUE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 10N99W...WHERE IT REMAINS FRACTURED...THEN RESUMES FROM 14N105W TO LOW PRES 1010 MB NEAR 11N127W TO 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHING 240 NM S OF TROUGH AXIS E OF 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 106W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM NW SEMICIRCLE AND 240 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF LOW PRES NEAR 11N127W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N E OF 120W...A FAIRLY WEAK GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION BETWEEN 1018 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 35N127W...AND WEAK 1011 MB LOW PRES OVER THE COLORADO RIVER DELTA. LATEST SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE NW FLOW PERSISTING OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE 1 TO 3 FT IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA...3 TO 5 FT IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND 5 TO 7 FT OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN RESIDUAL NW SWELL. A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK MID/UPPER TROUGH TUE INTO WED...KEEPING THE MILD CONDITIONS IN PLACE. LOOKING AHEAD...A STRONGER MID/UPPER TROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE WATERS NORTH OF GUADALUPE ISLAND...ALONG WITH A NEW ROUND OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FT TO THE BAJA COAST BY LATE THU. S OF 15N E OF 110W...AN UPPER TROUGH IS SWEEPING ACROSS N PORTIONS AND APPROACHING BAJA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY TONIGHT. WEAK LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY FORM ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 90W W OF COSTA RICA...BUT WILL REMAIN ELONGATED MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO DEPICT AS A DISTINCT LOW CENTER. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. RESIDUAL SW SWELL IS MAINTAINING SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ELSEWHERE...A 1010 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 11N127W EMBEDDED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. ASCAT SATELLITE DATA FROM 06 UTC INDICATED MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WITHIN 120 NM ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW. A CONCURRENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASS INDICATED SEAS TO 8 FT IN THIS AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE POSITION OR INTENSITY OF THE LOW PRES THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS WILL INCREASE HOWEVER BY LATE WEEK WITH THE ADDITION OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL INTO THIS AREA. THE NW SWELL WITH SEAS 8 TO 13 FT WILL ENVELOP MUCH OF THE BROADER REGION NW OF LINE FROM THE OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TO 11N140W BY LATE WED. $$ CHRISTENSEN