000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260311 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON OCT 26 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE OLAF IS W OF 140W AND THE DISCUSSION AREA...CENTERED NEAR 23.5N 143.5W AT 0300 UTC...MOVING NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB. SEE LATEST CPHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HFOTCMCP5/WTPA25 PHFO FOR MORE DETAILS. OLAF IS FORECAST TO CONTINUING MOVING NE AND CROSS 140W AS A TROPICAL STORM ON MON...REACHING 26.5N 138.4W BY 0000 UTC TUE...AS A 50 KT TROPICAL STORM...THEN CONTINUING TO MOVE NE AND WEAKEN TO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM AS IT REACHES 28.6N 133.4W BY 0000 UTC WED...THEN IS FORECAST TO TURNS SE...S AND THEN SW...REACHING NEAR 28.1N 132.1W BY 0000 UTC THU AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THEN CONTINUE SW AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BY FRI. CURRENTLY SW SWELLS GENERATED BY OLAF ARE MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ACROSS OUR NW WATERS WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT W OF A LINE FROM 30N127W TO 25N133W TO 21.5N134W TO 18N140W. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS SHIFTED INTO THE E CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS EVENING...WHICH HAS ALLOWED STRONG WINDS TO SPILL ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HAD JUST RECENTLY BEGUN TO REACH GALE FORCE THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL EXTEND MODESTLY S AND SW AND DOWNSTREAM OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE MON MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL BUILD 8 TO 12 FT DOWNSTREAM OF TEHUANTEPEC OVERNIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF THROUGH TUE MORNING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N73.5W TO 11N82W TO 08.5N89W TO 10N98W...WHERE IT REMAINS FRACTURED...THEN RESUMES FROM 14N103W TO 12N113W TO 13N123W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12.5N126.5W TO 15N138W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 04N TO 09.5N E OF 101W...WITHIN 45 NM N AND 210 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 104W AND 127W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 03N TO 08N W OF 130W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N E OF 130W...A FAIRLY WEAK GRADIENT IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION BETWEEN WEAKENING 1018 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 36N130W...AND TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MODERATE NW WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAVE BECOME VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHILE WINDS ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ARE NW AROUND 10 KT THIS EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH MON AFTERNOON WHEN THE SEABREEZE ALONG BAJA WILL INCREASE WINDS TO AROUND 15 KT. S OF 15N E OF 120W...AN UPPER TROUGH IS SWEEPING ACROSS N PORTIONS AND APPROACHING BAJA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY TONIGHT. WEAK LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY FORM ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 90W W OF COSTA RICA...BUT WILL REMAIN ELONGATED MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO DEPICT AS A DISTINCT LOW CENTER. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. RESIDUAL SW SWELL IS MAINTAINING SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ELSEWHERE...A 1009 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 12.5N126.5W EMBEDDED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS LOW PRES WILL DRIFT N TO NE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE MONSOON TROUGH LIFTS GRADUALLY N. SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE LOW CENTER AT THAT TIME DUE TO THE LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS. MEANWHILE A LARGE AREA OF MIXED SW AND NW SWELL WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT COVERS THE WATERS FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 102W AND 130W. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BETWEEN 24-48 HOURS. $$ STRIPLING