000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252216
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SUN OCT 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE OLAF IS W OF 140W AND THE DISCUSSION AREA...CENTERED 
NEAR 22.5N 143.2W AT 2100 UTC...MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 
DEGREES AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 100 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB.  
SEE LATEST CPHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
HFOTCMCP5/WTPA25 PHFO FOR MORE DETAILS. 

OLAF IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE AND CROSS 140W AS A TROPICAL STORM 
ON MON AFTERNOON...REACHING 25.5N 139.8W BY 1800 UTC MON...AS A 
60 KT TROPICAL STORM...THEN CONTINUING TO MOVE NE AND WEAKEN TO 
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT REACHES 28.4N 134.8W BY 1800 UTC 
TUE...THEN IS FORECAST TO TURNS SE...S AND THEN SW...REACHING 
NEAR 28.4N 133.0W BY 1800 UTC WED AS A TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION...THEN CONTINUE SW AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AHEAD OF 
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BY FRI. CURRENTLY SW SWELLS GENERATED 
BY OLAF ARE MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ACROSS OUR NW 
WATERS WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT W OF A LINE FROM 30N132W TO 
18N138.5W TO 17.5N140W.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...FRESH SW-W WINDS OCCURRING 
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF OAXACA MEXICO NEAR PUERTO ANGEL 
THIS MORNING HAVE DIMINISHED THIS AFTERNOON...IN ADVANCE OF A 
BLAST OF NORTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL SPILL ACROSS THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A STRONG COLD FRONT 
IS MOVING SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE 
GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE MOVED TO OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ.  
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL QUICKLY INCREASING TO 
MINIMAL GALE FORCE AFTER SUNSET THROUGH MON MORNING ONCE THE 
FRONT SHIFTS E OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CHIVELA PASS. THE 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH MON AFTERNOON WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS 
PERSISTING IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF THROUGH TUE MORNING. SEAS ARE 
FORECAST BY THE LATEST RUN OF THE TAFB-NWPS WAVE MODEL TO BUILD 
TO 12 FT BY MON MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 11N85W TO 07N93W TO 08N100W THEN 
RESUMES FROM 18N102W TO 12N115W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12.5N127W TO 
10N134W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 03N 
TO 10N E OF 102W...AND WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 103W 
AND 134W. 

...DISCUSSION...

ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A FAIRLY WEAK GRADIENT IS IN 
PLACE OVER THE REGION BETWEEN WEAKENING HIGH PRES CENTERED W   
OF THE AREA...AND TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. MODERATE NW WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL 
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO GENTLE WHILE BECOMING VARIABLE THIS 
AFTERNOON. EARLIER ALTIMETER AND SHIP DATA SHOWED SEAS OF 5-8 FT 
SW OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE 
TO 4-6 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. 

A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION...FROM N CENTRAL 
MEXICO TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA TO SW OF CLARION ISLAND. VERY DRY AIR ACCOMPANIES THE 
UPPER TROUGH AND THE REGION IS VIRTUALLY CLOUD FREE N OF 20N.  
LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING 
THE REGION BY LATE WEEK...ACCOMPANIED BY NW SWELL AND STRONG NW 
WINDS W OF GUADALUPE ISLAND.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...THE UPPER TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE AREA 
FROM THE NW. WEAK LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY FORM 
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 90W W OF COSTA RICA...BUT WILL 
REMAIN ELONGATED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO 
DEPICT AS A DISTINCT LOW CENTER. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS 
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. RESIDUAL SW SWELL IS 
MAINTAINING SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

ELSEWHERE...A STATIONARY 1010 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 
12.5N127W EMBEDDED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. A SMALL AREA OF 
FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THE NW SIDE 
OF THE LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OR MOVEMENT IS 
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 
THIS LOW PRES WILL DRIFT N TO NE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE 
MONSOON TROUGH LIFTS GRADUALLY N. SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT CAN BE 
EXPECTED NEAR THE LOW CENTER AT THAT TIME DUE TO THE LOCALLY 
STRONGER WINDS. MEANWHILE A LARGE AREA OF MIXED SW AND NW SWELL 
WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT COVERS THE WATERS FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 
102W AND 130W. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BETWEEN 
24-48 HOURS.

$$ 
STRIPLING