000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250302 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN OCT 25 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE OLAF CONTINUES TO CHURN WEST OF 140W...AND WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 144.3W AT 0300 UTC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS TO 105 KT. OLAF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING IT FROM THE NW...AND WILL MOVE INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS AS A WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM. INTERACTION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM MAY WEAKEN OLAF MORE QUICKLY AFTER 48 HOURS...AND THE CPHC FORECAST THEN MOVES OLAF BACK TO THE WEST...EMBEDDED IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT. CURRENTLY...SW SWELLS GENERATED BY OLAF ARE COMBINING WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL TO GENERATE SEAS OF 7-10 FT ACROSS THE W CENTRAL AND NW WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD IN ADVANCE OF OLAF TO NEAR 12 FT ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING. SEE LATEST CPHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HFOTCMCP5/WTPA25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10.5N73W TO 10N84W TO 09N94W...WHERE IT REMAINS FRACTURED...THEN RESUMES FROM 16N105W TO 14N115W TO 13.5N122W TO LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 12N127.5W TO 11N138W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 04N TO 08.5N E OF 100W...WITHIN 60 NM N AND 240 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 103W AND 138W...AND FROM 03.5N TO 08N W OF 130W. ...DISCUSSION... SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING FROM THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF SW MEXICO. THIS RAINFALL ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTAL ZONES WILL COMPOUND THE SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS LEFT BEHIND BY THE PASSAGE OF PATRICIA LAST NIGHT. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN POTENTIAL LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF NAYARIT...JALISCO...COLIMA...MICHOACAN AND GUERRERO. LINGERING SWELLS GENERATED BY PATRICIA WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING LINGERING THROUGH TONIGHT. FRESH SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH RESULTING IN FRESH S-SW WIND WAVES EXTENDING FROM THE DEEP TROPICS ALONG 120W TO THE COASTAL WATERS OFF OF ACAPULCO. MIXED SWELL CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THESE WAVES RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL WATERS ROUGHLY FROM 04N TO 17N BETWEEN 96W AND 130W. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECAY AND CONTRACT IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FURTHER EAST...SW MONSOONAL FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS BY SUN MORNING SW OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA RESULTING IN SEAS TO 8 FT FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 92W AND 98W. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY MON MORNING ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...FRESH TO STRONG SW-W WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LOCALLY ALONG THE COAST OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO. HOWEVER THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY SUN MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE AREA BY EARLY SUN MORNING. HIGH PRES RIDGING WILL BUILD S-SE ACROSS MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT USHERING IN FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF COMMENCING LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN CASE A GALE WARNING BECOMES REQUIRED. SEAS ARE FORECAST BY THE LATEST RUN OF THE TAFB-NWPS TO BUILD TO UP TO 12 FT JUST DOWNWIND OF THE GULF BY EARLY MON MORNING. $$ STRIPLING