000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241519 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT OCT 24 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATRICIA CENTERED NEAR 23.9N 101.6W AT 24/1500 UTC OR 83 NM NE OF ZACATECAS MEXICO MOVING NE AT 21 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AND FRAGMENT AS PATRICIA MOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO. EVEN SO...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF NAYARIT...JALISCO...COLIMA...MICHOACAN AND GUERRERO. LINGERING SWELLS GENERATED BY PATRICIA WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS AND COASTAL FLOODING LINGERING TODAY. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 06N90W TO 09N98W THEN RESUMES FROM 18N106W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N125W TO 10N133W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 07N E OF 84W...FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W...WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 99W...WITHIN 240 NM SE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 118W...AND WITHIN 240 NM SE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 132W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 129W AND 133W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH TO STRONG NW FLOW CONTINUES ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 24N BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL RIDGING W OF THE AREA AND PATRICIA INLAND OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO. EARLIER OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATED MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS. IN THE MEANTIME... ALTIMETER AND SHIP DATA RECENTLY SAMPLED 8-10 FT SEAS JUST W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM 21N TO 27N BETWEEN 112W AND 119W. THESE SEAS ARE THE RESULT OF SE SWELL GENERATED BY PATRICIA AND LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL. THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE SUN MORNING. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...FRESH TO STRONG SW-W WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LOCALLY OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO JUST SW OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON N OF 14.5N BETWEEN 95.5W AND 97.5W HOWEVER THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY SUN MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE AREA BY EARLY SUN MORNING. HIGH PRES RIDGING WILL BUILD S-SE ACROSS MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT USHERING IN FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF COMMENCING LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN CASE A GALE WARNING BECOMES REQUIRED. SEAS ARE FORECAST BY THE LATEST RUN OF THE TAFB-NWPS TO BUILD TO UP TO 12 FT JUST DOWNWIND OF THE GULF BY EARLY MON MORNING. HURRICANE OLAF CONTINUES TO CHURN WEST OF 140W. SW SWELLS GENERATED BY OLAF ARE COMBINING WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL TO GENERATE SEAS OF 7-10 FT ACROSS THE W CENTRAL AND NW WATERS. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE LONG-TERM MOTION OF OLAF...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM CPHC INDICATES OLAF CONTINUING TO MOVE NE OVER THE WEEKEND...AND CROSSING INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 25N140W MON NIGHT... LINGERING IN THAT GENERAL VICINITY BEFORE TURNING BACK TO THE W AND MOVING BACK W OF 140W BY WED NIGHT. FRESH WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH RESULTING IN FRESH S-SW WIND WAVES. MEANWHILE MIXED SWELL CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THESE WAVES RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL WATERS ROUGHLY FROM 04N TO 21N BETWEEN 96W AND 133W. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECAY AND CONTRACT IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SW MONSOONAL FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS BY SUN MORNING SW OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA RESULTING IN SEAS TO 8 FT FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 92W AND 98W. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY MON MORNING ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT. $$ LEWITSKY