000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240918 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT OCT 24 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0815 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE PATRICIA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF W CENTRAL MEXICO. PATRICIA WAS CENTERED NEAR 22.3N 103.1W AT 0900 UTC MOVING NNE OR 025 DEG AT 18 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB. AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 03 UTC INDICATED WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN A RAIN BAND OFF THE COAST TO THE SOUTH OF PATRICIA. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OUT TO 60 NM BETWEEN LAZARO CARDENAS AND MANZANILLO MEXICO UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING...AND STRONG GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THIS AREA UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS TO 13 FT TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO THE AFTERNOON. PATRICIA WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH TODAY AS IT MOVES INTO NE MEXICO. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE BETWEEN ACAPULCO AND MANZANILLO. THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE BRING VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF NAYARIT...JALISCO... COLIMA...MICHOACAN AND GUERRERO LEADING TO LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH...BUT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER AREAS ALREADY SATURATED FROM EARLIER RAINS. DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...A RAINFALL TOTAL OF 10.25 INCHES...260 MM...HAS BEEN REPORTED AT NEVADO DE COLIMA IN JALISCO STATE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 07N97W...WHERE IT REMAINS FRACTURED...THEN RESUMES FROM SW OF PATRICIA NEAR 14N109W TO 12N114W TO LOW PRES 1009 MB NEAR 12N125W TO 12N132W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 107W AND 133W. ...DISCUSSION... FRESH TO STRONG NW FLOW CONTINUES ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEST OF THE AREA AND HURRICANE PATRICIA MOVING INLAND OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 02 UTC INDICATED MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AS WELL. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY AS PATRICIA WEAKENS AND MOVES FARTHER EAST. ANOTHER ASCAT PASS FROM 05 UTC INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS SOUTH OF 1009 MB LOW PRES ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 12N125W. OTHER ASCAT DATA ALONG WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM TOGA BUOYS INDICATE FRESH SW FLOW INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH...SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 08N OT 13N BETWEEN 107W AND 113W. SEAS RANGE FROM 8 TO 11 FT IN THE AREA OF STRONG SW FLOW...IN PART DUE LONGER PERIOD SW SWELL MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. MEANWHILE HURRICANE OLAF CONTINUES TO CHURN WEST OF 140W IS COMBINING WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL TO GENERATE SEAS OF 7-10 FT ACROSS THE W CENTRAL AND NW WATERS. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE LONG-TERM MOTION OF OLAF...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM CPHC INDICATES OLAF CONTINUING TO MOVE NE OVER THE WEEKEND...AND CROSSING INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA MON AND TUE AS A WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM. EXPECT LARGE SWELL TO SWEEP INTO NW PART OF DISCUSSION AREA WITH AND AHEAD OF OLAF EARLY NEXT WEEK. $$ CHRISTENSEN