000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240259 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT OCT 24 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... DANGEROUS HURRICANE PATRICIA MOVED INLAND THIS EVENING AROUND 615 PM CDT NEAR CUIXMALA MEXICO AS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 20.2N 104.6W AT 0300 UTC MOVING NNE OR 020 DEG AT 17 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED 115 KT WITH GUSTS 140 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946 MB. PATRICIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE N-NE THEN NE ACROSS MEXICO OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY WHILE STEADILY WEAKENING. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25. BEYOND THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED DAMAGE NEAR THE CENTER OF PATRICIA...THEN GREATEST IMPACT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM N AND 75 NM S SEMICIRCLES...WHILE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 270 NM N SEMICIRCLE...360 NM SE AND 150 NM SW QUADRANTS. DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS EXTREME WINDS AND TREMENDOUS WAVES WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL ZONES OF MICHOACAN AND JALISCO...AND PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING AND INUNDATIONS. THE MEXICAN STATES OF NAYARIT...JALISCO...COLIMA...MICHOACAN AND GUERRERO ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL LEADING TO LIFE-THREATENING FLASHING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS RAINFALL COULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTER PATRICIA IS WELL INLAND AS STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THESE COASTAL ZONES. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR NEAR 08N72W TO 10N86W TO 08N95W...WHERE IT REMAINS FRACTURED...THEN RESUMES FROM SW OF PATRICIA NEAR 14.5N107W TO 12.5N113W TO LOW PRES 1009 MB NEAR 12.5N125.5W TO 13N132W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 06N TO 14N BETWEEN 104W AND 126W. ...DISCUSSION... ALTHOUGH NOW INLAND...PATRICIA HAS NOT COMPLETELY DISCONNECTED FROM THE SW MONSOONAL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A LARGE SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS IS CONVERGING INTO PATRICIA ACROSS THE S CENTRAL WATERS... ROUGHLY FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 104W AND 122W . AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THESE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO PATRICIA...AND WILL TRAIL THE HURRICANE AS IT MOVES FURTHER INLAND THROUGH SATURDAY. CROSS- EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS COMBINING WITH FRESH SW WIND WAVES S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THIS AREA...AND OUTER SWELL GENERATED BY PATRICIA...RESULTING IN 8-11 FT SEAS. THESE HIGH SEAS WILL GRADUALLY CONTRACT IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL DECAYS. AND THE SW WINDS WEAKEN. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS EXTENDING FROM 1023 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 33N130W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING S AND SE TO 18N115W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE DEEP LOW PRES RELATED TO PATRICIA IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH NW FLOW ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHERE SEAS ARE GENERALLY 5-6 FT...BUT BUILDING QUICKLY 8-10 FT SOUTH OF CABO SAN LORENZO IN SE SWELL FROM PATRICIA. AS PATRICIA MOVES FARTHER INLAND TONIGHT THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG NW FLOW DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH SEAS BUILDING 6 TO 9 FT MIXED WITH SE HURRICANE SWELL NEAR MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS WEEKEND AS PATRICIA MOVES INLAND OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. SW TO W SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE OLAF WELL W OF 140W IS COMBINING WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL TO GENERATE SEAS OF 7-10 FT ACROSS THE W CENTRAL AND NW WATERS. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE LONG-TERM MOTION OF OLAF...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM CPHC INDICATES OLAF CONTINUING TO MOVE NE OVER THE WEEKEND...AND CROSSING INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA MON AND TUE AS A WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM. EXPECT LARGE SWELL TO SWEEP INTO NW PART OF DISCUSSION AREA WITH AND AHEAD OF OLAF EARLY NEXT WEEK. $$ STRIPLING