000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232208 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI OCT 23 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE PATRICIA IS CENTERED 18.9N 105.2W AT 2100 UTC...OR ABOUT 41 NM SW OF MELAQUE MEXICO...MOVING NNE OR 015 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 175 KT GUSTS 215 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 879 MB. PATRICIA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ACROSS THE STATE OF JALISCO MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25. SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTS THAT THE EYE OF PATRICIA IS FILLING AND THE HURRICANE HAS LIKELY BEGUN AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...AND REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM ACROSS THE NW AND 120 NM ACROSS THE SE SEMICIRCLES...WHILE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AREA ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM EXCEPT 120 NM ACROSS THE W QUADRANT. IN ADDITION TO THE EXTREME WINDS AND TREMENDOUS WAVES...COASTAL FLOODING AND INUNDATIONS WILL ACCOMPANY PATRICIA AS IT MOVES INLAND. THE MEXICAN STATES OF NAYARIT...JALISCO...COLIMA...MICHOACAN AND GUERRERO ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL LEADING TO LIFE-THREATENING FLASHING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS RAINFALL COULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTER PATRICIA IS WELL INLAND AS STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THESE COASTAL ZONES. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N77W TO 08N94W...WHERE IT REMAINS FRACTURED...THEN RESUMES FROM SW OF PATRICIA NEAR 13.5N109W TO LOW PRES 1010 MB NEAR 12.5N125.5W TO 12.5N130W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 03N TO 09N E OF 87W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 103W AND 125W. ...DISCUSSION... PATRICIA HAS NOT COMPLETELY DISCONNECTED FROM THE SW MONSOONAL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A LARGE SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS IS CONVERGING INTO PATRICIA ACROSS THE S CENTRAL WATERS... ROUGHLY FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 102W AND 124W. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THESE WINDS EXTEND INTO THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND AREA TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO PATRICIA...AND WILL TRAIL THE HURRICANE AS IT MOVES INLAND THROUGH SATURDAY. CROSS- EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS COMBINING WITH FRESH SW WIND WAVES S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THIS AREA...AND OUTER SWELL GENERATED BY PATRICIA...RESULTING IN 8-11 FT SEAS. THESE HIGH SEAS WILL GRADUALLY CONTRACT IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL DECAYS. AND THE SW WINDS WEAKEN. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS EXTENDING FROM 1021 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 33N131W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING S AND SE TO 19N117W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE DEEP LOW PRES RELATED TO PATRICIA IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH NW FLOW ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHERE SEAS ARE GENERALLY 5-6 FT...BUT BUILDING QUICKLY 8-10 FT SOUTH OF CABO SAN LORENZO IN SE SWELL FROM PATRICIA. AS PATRICIA MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST AND CABO CORRIENTES THIS EVENING...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG NW FLOW DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH SEAS BUILDING 6 TO 9 FT MIXED WITH SE HURRICANE SWELL NEAR MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS WEEKEND AS PATRICIA MOVES INLAND OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. SW TO W SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE OLAF WELL W OF 140W IS COMBINING WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL TO GENERATE SEAS OF 7-10 FT ACROSS THE W CENTRAL AND NW WATERS. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE LONG-TERM MOTION OF OLAF...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM CPHC INDICATES OLAF CONTINUING TO MOVE NE OVER THE WEEKEND...AND CROSSING INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA MON AND TUE AS A WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM. EXPECT LARGE SWELL TO SWEEP INTO NW PART OF DISCUSSION AREA WITH AND AHEAD OF OLAF EARLY NEXT WEEK. $$ STRIPLING