000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231530 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI OCT 23 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC MAJOR HURRICANE PATRICIA CENTERED NEAR 15.2N 105.6W AT 23/1500 UTC OR 109 NM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO OR 169 NM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MOVING N AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 880 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 175 KT WITH GUSTS TO 215 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25. THE INTENSITY OF MAJOR HURRICANE PATRICIA IS UNPRECEDENTED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. PATRICIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO MAKING LANDFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITHIN 300 NM OF THE CENTER...EXCEPT WITHIN 540 NM IN THE S QUADRANT. IN ADDITION TO THE EXTREME WINDS...TREMENDOUS WAVES...COASTAL FLOODING AND INUNDATIONS WILL ACCOMPANY PATRICIA AS IT MOVES INLAND. THE MEXICAN STATES OF NAYARIT...JALISCO...COLIMA...MICHOACAN AND GUERRERO ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL LEADING TO LIFE-THREATENING FLASHING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS RAINFALL COULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTER PATRICIA IS WELL INLAND. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N75W TO 10N85W TO 11N91W THEN RESUMES FROM 13N108W TO 11N120W TO 10N130W TO 09N135W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 03N E OF 80W...FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 89W AND 91W...WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 113W AND 121W...WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 115W...WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 127W...AND ALSO WITHIN 135 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 128W AND 131W. ...DISCUSSION... A WEAKENED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS EXTENDING FROM 1024 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 45N130W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REACHING S THROUGH 32N130W TO 22N113W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE DEEP LOW PRES RELATED TO PATRICIA IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH NW FLOW ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. AS PATRICIA SHIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD CABO CORRIENTES LATER TODAY...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG NW FLOW DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 9 FT MIXED WITH SE SWELL NEAR MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS WEEKEND AS PATRICIA MOVES INLAND OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. A LARGE SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG SW FLOW IS CONVERGING INTO PATRICIA ACROSS THE S CENTRAL WATERS ROUGHLY BETWEEN 101W AND 131W. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS COMBINING WITH FRESH SW WIND WAVES S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THIS AREA...AND OUTER SWELL GENERATED BY PATRICIA RESULTING IN 8-11 FT SEAS. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY CONTRACT IN COVERAGE AS FAR AS HEIGHTS OF 8 FT OR GREATER THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL DECAYS. SW TO W SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE OLAF WELL W OF 140W IS COMBINING WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL TO GENERATE SEAS OF 7-10 FT ACROSS THE W CENTRAL AND NW WATERS. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE LONG-TERM MOTION OF OLAF...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM CPHC INDICATES OLAF CONTINUING TO MOVE NE OVER THE WEEKEND...AND CROSSING INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA MON AND TUE AS A WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM. EXPECT LARGE SWELL TO SWEEP INTO NW PART OF DISCUSSION AREA WITH AND AHEAD OF OLAF EARLY NEXT WEEK. $$ LEWITSKY