000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221520
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC THU OCT 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE PATRICIA LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 103.8W AT 1500 UTC MOVING 
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 105 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
240 NM NE...180 NM SE...300 NM SW AND 210 NW QUADRANTS. PATRICIA 
HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED...AND AN EYE IS EVIDENT IN VIS SATELLITE 
IMAGERY. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO 
THE NEXT TWO DAYS FROM PATRICIA. FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE 
LIKELY IN AREAS AFFECTED BY THE HEAVY RAINFALL. PLEASE SEE THE 
LATEST FORECAST/PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC AND 
MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 13N95W... 
THEN FROM 13N108W 08N136W. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 08N-14N BETWEEN 102W-116W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W-133W.

...DISCUSSION... 

A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS OVER NORTHERN WATERS N OF 20N W OF 115W. 
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADES ARE FOUND SW OF THE RIDGE. A COLD 
FRONT N OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES 30N OVER THE 
WEEKEND. THE HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE N TO WEAKEN THE PRES GRADIENT 
OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND DIMINISH WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA 
N OF 15N OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF PATRICIA. 

SW TO W SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE OLAF WELL W OF 140W IS  
GENERATING 8-10 FT SEAS FROM 09N-23N W OF 138W. OLAF IS EXPECTED 
TO MOVE NORTHWARD THEN NE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND CONTINUE TO 
SEND SWELL INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. GLOBAL 
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE LONG-TERM MOTION OF OLAF. THE 120 
HR OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM CPHC INDICATES OLAF CROSSING BACK INTO 
THE EPAC ON TUE AS A TROPICAL STORM. EXPECT LARGE SWELL TO SWEEP 
INTO NW PART OF DISCUSSION AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

$$ 
MUNDELL