000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220939
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC THU OCT 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0815 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE PATRICIA LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 102.3W AT 0900 UTC MOVING 
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 90 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
WITHIN 240 NM NE QUADRANT...180 NM SE QUADRANT...330 NM SW 
QUADRANT AND 270 NW QUADRANT. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS 
FORECAST...AND PATRICIA IS LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE 
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NW. HEAVY RAIN IS 
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS FROM PATRICIA. FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL BE 
POSSIBLE OVER AREAS AFFECTED BY THE HEAVY RAINFALL. PLEASE SEE 
THE LATEST FORECAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS ON PATRICIA.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N84W TO 12N93W... 
THEN CONTINUES FROM 11N96W TO 11N126W TO 08N132W TO 09N137W. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS FROM 09N-14N BETWEEN 
109W-114W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 270 NM S OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 108W TO 128W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
FROM 07N-11.5N BETWEEN 91W-95W.

...DISCUSSION... 

A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM 
32N140W TO THE ISLAS REVILLAGIGEDO. A COLD FRONT LIES JUST TO 
THE N OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER 
NEAR 41N138W ANALYZED BEHIND THE FRONT. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH 
NE TRADE WINDS ARE FOUND SW OF THE RIDGE...WHILE MORE NORTHERLY 
FRESH TO MODERATE WINDS LIE TO THE N OF THE RIDGE. THE COLD 
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO WATERS N OF 30N OVER THE 
WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME...THE HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE TO THE N. 
THIS WILL WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA 
AND DIMINISH THE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 15N AND AWAY 
FROM PATRICIA. 

HURRICANE OLAF WAS WELL W OF THE AREA NEAR 13N146W AT 0900 UTC. 
WHILE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER FAR WESTERN WATERS ASSOCIATED 
WITH HURRICANE OLAF...PRIMARILY SW TO W SWELL CONTINUED TO 
GENERATE 8-10 FT SEAS IN THE AREA FROM 08N-24N W OF 136W. OLAF 
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE N-NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND 
CONTINUE TO SEND SWELL INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SWELL WILL 
MERGE WITH NW SWELL ASSOCIATED THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT 
THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NW WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NW 
SWELL IS PROPAGATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL BRING 7-9 FT 
SEAS TO NW WATERS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NW SWELL WILL MOVE 
ACROSS FAR N WATERS...REACHING 120W BY EARLY SAT MORNING.

THE LEADING EDGE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL TRAIN WITH PERIOD IN 
THE 20-22 SECOND RANGE HAS REACHED THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THIS 
MORNING. THIS SWELL IS LIKELY PRODUCING DANGEROUS CONDITIONS 
WHEN EXITING AND ENTERING PORTS IN THE GALAPAGOS AND MAY 
INCREASE THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT 
RANGE. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL WILL PUSH ONTO THE ENTIRE 
PACIFIC COAST THROUGH SUNRISE SAT. 

$$ 
SCHAUER